CAPE

The -NAO with a horrid Pac isn't likely to make many people happy, so.. The other interesting thing with the advertised +heights over Baffin in the LR- and this is being debated in the NE forum- is that it may be the result of mild Pac air flow across Canada, warming and expanding the column, and producing those anomalous 500 mb heights, vs an actual ridge(anticyclone) which should have an adjacent trough over the east. I am not sure if I buy that, but there doesn't seem to be much curvature to the height lines once the +heights move into the sweet spot. I think that is probably more an artifact of a smoothed mean 15 days out. Either way, the PAC needs to become less hostile going forward or we will likely continue to struggle for chances of frozen.

Looking at 50 mb and 500 mb height/temp anomalies on the LR GEFS would imply strat-trop coupling and a favorable environment for continued HL blocking.

I would trade that look with a much more favorable Pac and less blocking for what the models are advertising over the next 10 days or so.

Extended GEFS has the look we need to flush the Pac puke and inject legit cold into our source region. Hopefully we get there, but it will take some time. eta- h5 is actually much improved out west by mid Jan, but still relatively mild in the lower levels at that time.

I think we are getting close to full on bipolar mode in the LR thread. A tad earlier than usual this winter.

Ours is coming. We just have to be patient.

UK getting some decent snow the past few days. My friend who lives outside Manchester is getting snowed on now. Pretty good pattern for them going forward. They can do much better than usual when there is a NA block.

The LR ensembles are suggesting some improvement in the EPAC, with the trough weakening some/retrograding, and a developing EPO ridge. That would provide a mechanism to redirect the flow, and inject some colder air. This seems to be the way things are evolving, but it will likely take some time. I can see some folks getting impatient because there will likely be a favorable west-based block for a time, without necessarily seeing more favorable outcomes. The evolution of the SWE probably increases the uncertainty on ultimate longwave pattern evolution, and how much colder we get going forward. It appears that the -AO/NAO will have persistence, so that's one big box checked on the list for winter weather in this region.

Climo plus some EPO/PNA help at the right time, in conjunction with a persistent -AO/NAO should get it done. If that happens and we still fail, we really do suck and need to move to NNE.

I remember as a kid watching those fat flakes falling and knowing I had to resist looking at it or it would stop.

Everything was fine until PSU showed up trying to be all logical and stuff.

Cold and dry, warm and wet. That we can do! Ofc we all know these super LR tools are large scale, general idea stuff, and have low resolution. Given that, I like it.

Thanks Deb.

Yeah I think 2, maybe 3 weeks out from initialization gives a reasonable idea of where the pattern is heading. Hopefully it ends up close!

My favorite panel from the latest Weeklies. Hard to get a better h5 look than this. Very Nino-ish.

Except many of our epic snowstorms have occurred beyond that date.

Pretty much lol. But if it looks good, we weenie!

The only "not great" h5 panel I saw was the very end of the run, around Feb 12, and we know what that's worth.

Friday night is still Friday. To be clear, I bet your yard is at least 50 by midnight. eta- if it maxes out in the upper 40s, I still win, since you claimed upper 30s.

Be patient lad. It ain't happening in the next 3 days.

Warm will never be denied when a storm tracks that far NW.

Temps will rise Fri night into Sat morning. Most places will be well into the 50s and possibly 60s for eastern areas.

I bet you see at least 50 on Friday.

Neutral? More of a -WPO, but I will take that all the same.

The nerds can tell us when its happening, since we just cant know.