CAPE

Ravens D has not been getting a lot of turnovers lately...might be time.

Christ give it to Dobbins.

He is amazing. 310 lbs and versatile. Just what they need. esp after the Boyle injury.

That's more like it.

It has been competitive. The Ravens should be able to control the clock and sustain long drives on this defense though.

Roman will make the proper adjustments.

They supposedly cant rush the passer either.

No blue but plenty of yellow and orange lol.

We will find out. We know suppression can be a risk in these setups, but I would rather flirt with that and have some decent cold to work with. Better odds of getting snow on the coastal plain with that look and cold/dry polar air available versus having a rotted Pac air mass in place every time a storm approaches.

Hard to say what the exact timing would be with a storm at this point, but look at this panel. We already will have had one cold front move through, and look at the TPV lobe underneath a pretty well positioned block. Not to mention the western ridge. I am definitely not hating that look.

You know the drill with op runs beyond 7 days. The 6z GEFS looked almost as good as the 0z run.

Yeah there were some light blue pixels in there lol.

It is sometimes difficult to tell with 30 members, but to me it looks like 2 or 3 chances between the 18th and the 24th.

Yeah there is a solid signal for some frozen beyond day 7 on the last few runs of the GEFS, from extreme northern NC through all of VA, MD, and DE. EPS looked decent at 12z yesterday, but not so much on the 0z run.

I'll throw this in for those who like these maps. It is the best snowfall mean I have seen in a long time, but then I don't look at them every run. 6z backed off a bit, but still pretty good. Outside of the western highlands, this is effectively from the 17th through the end of the run.

I counted 12 members on the 0z GEFS with snow for our region on the 18-19th. Another half dozen or so with snow the 20-23rd. That is a pretty strong signal for 8+ days out.

Best since 96! I wont lie, I have enjoyed this week of dryness. My driveway has solidified again.

Yeah I wouldn't worry too much about the 2m temps as advertised. Just having somewhat colder, lower dp air available will make a big difference. With a -AO/NAO, we tend to have the highs and lows in the right places, and evaporational cooling can work its magic.

Could be just bad luck/bad timing then, or an indication of some longer term changes. Given the HL look we have had, it seemed different to me. Maybe that is partly due to the ground truth here being exactly the same as last winter, despite the HL blocking lol. It will be interesting to see how things play out over the next 10 days or so, when it appears we will have some colder/drier air to work with, and blocking in place. Better luck if nothing else, hopefully.

Thanks, but what makes this fun is everyone contributing and sharing info and getting different perspectives. It's a group effort.

Agree, but read my most recent post. This seems a bit different than what we typically see. Maybe I am wrong though.

Wow. Surprised.

Fumble. Game over.

Well on our way to summer now.

I might be off here, but the oddity with this blocking pattern is the split Pac jet- where it has been cutting to our south but also straight across Canada, and keeping Polar air well north. We generally don't need major cold for snow when we have a -AO/NAO, but temps are not typically way above normal up in NNE. All the Polar air has been bottled up wayyy up north because of the Pac air infiltration. Difficult to get relatively cold, dry air in place ahead of a storm with that setup, which is sort of the bread and butter of a HL block.