CAPE
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@nw baltimore wx What's the abv on this? I would guess 9% or so.
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Met up with @nw baltimore wx at Terrapin Park on Kent Island yesterday. We drank some of his pumpkin ale out of red plastic cups, shootin' the shit across the bed of his truck. I don't think the people walking by probably thought we were sipping lemonade. Pretty sure I got the better end of the trade- a growler of the pumpkin ale for 3 RAR First Meal Stouts. Drinking some now. Pretty similar to the FD Fear. Might lean a tad towards a winter warmer. Good stuff!
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Ravens might not have a punter for the game on Sunday. If they are serious about the playoffs, they really shouldn't need to punt.
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I will be hanging out in here and drinking beer until my yard gets pummeled by digital snow on some random op run. Drooling over epic h5 looks with no cold air around has become uninteresting lol.
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Yeah mid month seems about right, but if we keep seeing the great looks on the ensembles by the 10th, that could move forward a bit. It would be more of a thread the needle deal with still marginal cold around.
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This might be about as negative as the NAO can get. The AO is also super negative at the end of that run.
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The trend is your friend on the EPS.
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It's better than 96 and 2009-10 how can it possibly disappoint?
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Not much to say that hasn't been said 100x at this point on the LR outlook. Outside of chasing freezing drizzle, mangled flakes, or a sleet pellet for extreme northern parts of the region in the short term, we are in wait and watch mode for awhile. Maybe something trackable pops up on guidance over the next few days as we move a bit closer to the sweeeeeet period we all know is imminent.
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Yeah it looks like the 'warmth' is a bit delayed from previous forecasts, probably after we dry slot. Just a bit of a disparity between the NAMs and the GFS though- GFS has 50s and even 60s(here) on Sat, NAM never gets the warmer air even to my yard, and keeps the area in the 40s.
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My post wasn't directed specifically at you. The point was we don't need a true arctic airmass in place(for the lowlands) leading up to an event in order to get a snowstorm. Moderate cold will work when the atmospheric setup is very favorable.
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Yeah, it tends to be colder further north. Maybe go back and read the context of the original posts.
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None were very cold leading in. The first storm in Feb I remember temps being around 36 when the first flakes were falling, and the temp pretty quickly dropped to freezing, and then into the mid 20s. The next one was actually rain here for the first part, but when the actual low that became the blizzard moved in, temps fell into the 20s. The coldest by far was the late Jan event where temps were in the teens and stayed there during the whole storm.
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Having all the features in the right places is the key. If the west based block is legit, we should have HP where we need it, and not running away, and lower heights where we want it off of the Canadian Maritimes. There are always variations and more "risk" for the coastal plain, but having a persistent -AO/NAO is about as good as it gets for snow chances.
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It wasn't super cold for any of the 3 big storms in 2009-10. We had the great blocking with a perfect storm track, and ofc we had the active stj with a moderate Nino.
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A poleward shift/relaxation of the Pac jet and associated +PNA does wonders for our temps. Not super cold but much improved towards the end of the run without the firehose pointed straight at us.
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Sounds good. PM me.
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If you can make it, meet me in Kent Island tomorrow. Going to donate blood at 3 pm then I will be heading to the Winery at Red Apple Plaza to pick up some stuff for NYE after that.
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The infotainment system. What vehicle do you have?
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I'll trade these RAR bacon stouts for some of your pumpkin stout
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That sounds like a great stout.
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Yeah I read reviews based on that version- layers of coffee and dark chocolate. Needless to say I was a bit surprised lol. I will be in kent Island tomorrow from about 3pm to maybe 5pm.
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Drinking a Guinness Stock Ale. Now this is a good stout.
