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CAPE

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  1. CAPE
    I will post this one panel from the new Euro weeklies. It indicates a continuation of the pattern 5-6 days beyond the end of the EPS run. Not much use beyond that timeframe, so we wont go there. It doesn't look terrible though fwiw.
  2. CAPE
    No politics Chuck. Or whatever the fuuck this shit is.
  3. CAPE
    Mount Holly- Another storm system likely approaches the area late next week with potential ptype concerns...however the trending negative PNA and the (related) hints of a building SE ridge, make this setup sub-optimal for snow lovers. WOMP C'mon man, don't be so boilerplate. The potential!
  4. CAPE
    Made it to 50 here. I was outside most of the day. Gorgeous weather. Lay down some rubber?
  5. CAPE
    In the near term yes, but colder air is working southward courtesy of the -EPO. Late next week/weekend is probably our first shot at frozen, but its going to be touchy because of the SER. Beyond that, as advertised, the colder air bleeds eastward and the ridge gets suppressed/shifts west.
  6. CAPE
    Exactly. The important feature(s) to watch are the vortices rotating around under the block. The timing and strength will be critical because with a -PNA there will be a SE ridge to contend with. The interplay between the 50-50 vortex and the SER will largely determine where the thermal boundary sets up.
  7. CAPE
    lol people need to find something else to focus on. The chances are there beginning next week. Disturbances zipping across under the blocking is chaotic, with plenty of uncertainty from one model cycle to the next.
  8. CAPE
    He got his Euro blue and was happy for 12 hours. Time for him to call it a winter.
  9. CAPE
    He should construct one for the DC area.
  10. CAPE
    Gotta like the chances with the persistence up top, despite the Pac doing its best to eff it all up.
  11. CAPE
    More ridging out west and colder air directed eastward is the big take away with that look- not to downplay the continued blocking.
  12. CAPE
    Fwiw, extended GEFS shifts the pesky SE/mid south ridge westward by months end, with a continued very favorable look up top. Pretty good outcome heading into Feb if this happens.
  13. CAPE
    A few random flurries would be ok, but mostly I don't want this game impacted by weather. It could/should be the best game of the divisional round.
  14. CAPE
    It is an evolving situation.
  15. CAPE
    I agree, but we are in the short range now and even have the mesos available for this weekend. I guess it has been dry lately, so the potential for maybe a half inch of rain is...different. lol.
  16. CAPE
    The front is wimpy. Temps Friday night will "fall" into the mid to upper 30s for most. Sat temps will rise into the mid 40s. Could there be some splatty wet flakes early Sat morning? Sure. I haven't seen any legit snow here since 2019, and this doesn't excite me in the least.
  17. CAPE
    It was in response to his earlier post about it looking frustrating through day 13. Now peel your panties out of your ass crack.
  18. CAPE
    NINAs hate us lol. My Ji post for the month. 12z GEFS looks active the last few days of the month. Some nice hits among the members.
  19. CAPE
    True, but no other pattern brings the high expectations of one that features a persistent -AO/NAO.
  20. CAPE
    Everyone loves the idea of a big blocking pattern, but then they don't want to be patient. It is a favorable pattern but often can be frustrating. There was a long wait for another winter storm after the December event in 2009. Imagine if that had missed. There would have been nothing until almost Feb. And that was a moderate Nino.
  21. CAPE
    Forecast high is 53 on Friday ahead of the front here. If there is any snow tv it would come Friday night ofc. How's that coastal looking for Sat?
  22. CAPE
    That was the one with the weird evolution- had 2 parts, with the second part being an upper air disturbance I think. Models all busted except for the ICON IIRC. It had DC and western burbs getting the goods while the rest had it further E/NE. I ended up with around 5" here but the forecast was for 10 or so. Didn't get a flake from the second piece.
  23. CAPE
    Yeah I was just looking at that. EPS does too. Some potential with the h5 look here, with a coastal storm implied on the mean, but would need some minor shifts in timing wrt the moisture/advancing cold/transfer verbatim.
  24. CAPE
    It really never becomes an issue on the means. With the weenie HL look being advertised, other than something very brief/weak, the SER will be suppressed.
  25. CAPE
    Temps are probably right about normal there, but colder thereafter. Nothing extreme, but better than it is now. If in fact it verifies lol.
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