CAPE

Looks like a wave along a front, with cold coming in on the backside. Some Barney cold at that.

The 6z GFS delivered ample digital snow, and Ji is asleep. I am sure the later runs will retract it so he can melt.

On the 6z GEFS I see 8 or so members with frozen for the MA region, with a few nice hits. Pretty decent signal.

Our nearby source region is going to be a lot less torchy by mid month, courtesy of what appears to be a sustained -EPO. Currently much of Canada is awash in modified Pac air. By mid month it is largely scoured out and replaced by polar air. Beyond the 15th of the month still looks like the period where our chances for colder storms increases. As @WxUSAF has been saying, anything we may get before that time is gravy.

0z GEFS looks decent for a little something early next week.

I think the WFT has a legit chance. TB D is not very good, and the WFT D line can pressure Brady and stuff the run. Their secondary needs to play well too tho. TB has some good downfield weapons.

I got my whine, and some cheese to go with it.

lol I always include a disclaimer anytime I post anything from the super LR/seasonal tools, favorable or unfavorable. The weenies seem to miss it tho.

Yes and it did it the last few runs too once beyond week 4. I only mentioned it to keep the good vibes from today going in here. In all seriousness- as I said- its usually complete crap beyond week 3 or 4 at the most. The main takeaway was the continuation of the cold the EPS is depicting towards the end of its run.

Just think typical Nina. Or what PSU has been fearing. Good thing is, its pretty much crap beyond 2 weeks(after the run it initializes on).

New edition of the Euro Weeklies continue from the previous version with a decidedly colder look the last half of Jan. I won't mention where it goes from there.

Shit let me get some wine.

First time I have seen Mt Holly mention the evolving pattern/potential in their AFD. Same general ideas we have been discussing here. The overall weather pattern of ridging over the north Atlantic with troughing over eastern Canada looks to continue through the long term. This is the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is often favorable for cold, stormy weather in the mid Atlantic. However a split flow in jet over eastern Canada looks to divert the real cold air well to our north so temperatures should actually be seasonable during this period. And at least initially the main storm track will likely remain supressed to our south. In terms of the details, the next southern stream wave looks to help steer a coastal low from the SE CONUS northeast off the Carolina coast by later Friday into early Saturday. There`s still a chance this could brush parts of Delmarva into southern NJ with a bit of rain or snow late Friday into early Saturday however this otherwise looks to be miss for our area meaning continuing mostly dry weather. We will continue to track this closely though in case it ends up trending back farther north and west which is still not completely out of the question. Otherwise high pressure should then move in and dominate for this coming weekend bringing a fair amount of sunshine and dry weather. By early next week we`ll need to watch the potential for another storm system that could move up or off the coast later next Monday into Tuesday.

Nothing other than impatience. Random op runs always entice the usual suspects, and make them lose all perspective. Getting something sooner would be cool, but the favorable period has always looked to begin around mid month.

12z Euro is gonna be good. I can feel it.

rotted air mass

I agree. There was enough of a shift between the 0z and 6z Euro to make a small difference, and it doesn't show up as well but can be seen on the mean. Unless it ends up being weaker/lifting out quicker, we need that shortwave further west/southwest to partially phase sooner. That will tug the low further NW. That is what the good runs of the Para were doing btw.

What specifically?

Subtle but step in the right direction here with the NS piece trying to drop in/phase earlier imo. Compare it to 0z.

6z EPS is a tick further north.

I dont want to steal WB WIll's thunder. It looks the usual climo-ish meh. EPS is a little better, esp for central/western NC and VA. Pretty strong indication of the southern slider.

The 6z Euro does have that NS shortwave a bit further southwest at the end of the run fwiw. eta- for those who don't know, 6z only goes out to hour 90, which is 0z Friday.

Good thing Ji is asleep. No blue over us.

As of now this is looking like a true southern slider. Outside of extreme lower S MD over to Salisbury, those never work out for the rest of us. We need that low to at least turn the corner a bit and gain some latitude as it is exiting the coast. Whether that can occur or not largely depends on what happens with the energy rotating down in eastern Canada under the block. It doesn't appear like it will be able to get out in front/out of the way in time, but maybe it trends a bit further west and partially phases sooner.