CAPE

Seeing hints of the EPAC ridge strengthen/retrograde into its typical Nina happy place towards day 15 on the ens means. That would favor some troughing out west. Long way off, and even with some signs of that on the means, the -AO/NAO/EPO are still there. Hell, the way things are going so far, we could use a bit of a SE ridge.

0z EPS. Its something, but this seems to be evolving much like this week's event, only weaker.

No I don't think so. Sounds good.

Yeah the next few days begins the transition from Pac flood to injection of Polar air into our source region and then southward.

Its never good when the laymen folk start talking about the polar vortex...since they don't have a fukking clue what it actually is.

Blue Ball-oons?

Yeah I know. You are addicted to those wonky surface p-type maps. It all starts upstairs though.

If this look verifies, and we do, well, you know what that means... Lucky for you, where you are moving, you won't notice it quite as much lol. Just watch out for those cat 4/5 storms.

So our "good" period has always looked to start around mid month. This is the 7 day mean beginning at that time on the EPS. No guarantees, but this looks very promising.

A strong jet streak moving into a developing trough argues for more amplification and slower progression, and less of a tendency for progressive/flatter. That is sort of meteo 101 stuff, but it might be the case where the models don't quite have a handle on this yet.

I wish I could have been a little unlucky instead of a lot unlucky then.

Can always thread a needle, and that was pretty marginal. You didn't have to go too far east find just another cold rain event.

I get it. I am still in shutout mode here lol. I was looking at the Pac jet on the GEFS this morning, and early in the run, it's split and the northern component is still straight into Canada, with the southern part well to our south. That looks odd and not conducive to storms here, esp not cold ones. That changes in a major(and favorable) way by the end of the run.

I don't think a lot of folks really grasp how much Pac puke has been hurled into Canada. That's one large factor in the failure to produce despite the -AO. It is gonna change though in a pretty big way.

Huge difference in our nearby source region. And LR 2m temps verbatim are the lolz

The blocking we have currently would be fine but there is a split flow and nothing but Pac air around for the near term. It looks like the pattern evolution will finally get some decent cold in our source region via EPO ridging, but the tradeoff may be a weaker -NAO. We always flirt with failure no matter what the pattern is, but given how we seem to fail more often lately with marginal air even with pretty favorable h5 looks, I am all for getting some legit cold in here.

Lets see what @WxUSAF thinks. Would probably be better to rename this thread as well to make it more clear as to the content.

We used to in the past IIRC.

I have been thinking it might be better to have 2 threads- one for tracking short/medium term threats( like inside 10 days) and one to discuss h5 patterns and larger scale phenomena/indices. Just a thought.

The general themes I see on the ens members, looking over them quickly, is either a more amped/phased solution with more precip (but warmer), or weak/sheared and south. The former may work out for NW areas for some frozen, but its not a good setup for those east of the fall line with not much cold available. The latter probably doesn't thrill anyone. For my yard, I don't care much for the trends over the last several ensemble runs for next week, but some changes are likely. My focus is still towards mid month and esp beyond. eta- I looked at both the EPS and GEFS. GEFS has more weaker/south solutions than the EPS

I think there may have been 5 mins of sun today. Bust. Maybe tomorrow, High of 39.

For at least half this forum the ground truth is exactly the same. The difference is there is hope that won't continue.

Colder air is still on schedule for mid to late month. Have not seen this in ages.

0z EPS for the next week threat-

He doesn't bother me, and he still makes me chuckle sometimes even though his routine is old and never changes.