CAPE

I will gladly risk getting some sleet, vs all snow and pathetically light accumulations.

I think Mount Holly nailed it as usual. The initial wave is weak/weakening as it moves east. They are thinking 1-3 here. The second wave is a bit more juiced, but the trends are further south with that. Need a couple ticks north in the next few model cycles.

The confluence/HP to the north is a tad problematic on recent runs, especially as the wave moves further east. Drier air is eating away at the precip just to the NE. Need that to be an issue up in eastern PA and NJ, not here.

Latest take from Mount Holly- Models continue to trend more suppressed and weaker with the southern-stream trough, owing to continued confluent midlevel flow from amplifying troughing in far eastern Canada. As a result, the QPF shield has shifted so that the maximum axis is generally in the southern half of the CWA Wednesday night and Thursday. Large-scale lift will be somewhat weak, so snow rates should be light to modest at best. Nevertheless, temperatures will be sufficiently cold for snow in virtually all of the CWA. By Thursday, current snow totals of 1-3 inches are fairly widespread south of I-78, with the highest amounts generally south of I-76. A second round of snow may occur as a stronger vort max approaches the East Coast on Thursday night and Friday. The NAM has trended well south with this, mostly keeping QPF out of the CWA. The ECMWF has trended this way as well, though to a much less extreme extent. The GFS and CMC, meanwhile, are farther north and provide another round of light snow to much of the area. By Friday, widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches are possible across the area, with highest confidence for the southern half of the CWA. The model trends continue colder for this period as well, given the lingering influence of the surface high to our north. This suggests the event will be primarily snow for the CWA, with any mixing likely to occur in far southern Delmarva and southeast New Jersey. Forecast temperatures were kept lower than consensus, and mainly weighted toward colder raw guidance, which tends to perform best in these regimes. Though the snow will generally be light, the sufficient cold and longer potential duration suggest meaningful impacts appear likely for our forecast area.

Gotta love these northern Carroll county dudes though. They should have their own subforum.

LOL. Euro is way snowier for the majority of the region.

I never said I buy it lol. Just commenting on what the run is depicting.

Too sleety here.

Me neither.

Ji needs this trend to stop immediately.

This doesn't seem like a particularly juicy setup to me. If there are in fact 2 waves that hit the same area, then yeah maybe there will be some 8" amounts. Cant say I can recall seeing this happen before in a configuration like this(and be all snow), but certainly not impossible.

Even an occurrence like that is unusual. My wag is the first one is a flush hit for the northern third of the region and a bit mixy south, and the second one is somewhat suppressed, but hopefully not a whiff.

Not a chance it plays out like the Euro is currently depicting. That said, it would seem there is a pretty good opportunity for some frozen this week.

If the Euro is right it is essentially a continuous 4 day deal capped off by an ice storm. Could just modify the date part of the storm thread and make it 10-14.

Yeah I guess it comes down to how one defines "big storm". I think it is dumb to state that winter would be a fail or disappointment if it doesn't meet what ever that criteria is, if it manages to exceed climo snowfall say with multiple light/ moderate events. To each their own though.

I knew having both starting tackles out would be problematic against that defensive front, but still that was a thorough beatdown of a prolific offense. Ofc all you are going to hear in the post analysis is GOAT GOAT GOAT!!!!! Yeah we know, he is good.

WB sucks even worse than it used to.

The way things are set up this week it very likely wont be "clean" for us, unless the Euro has the right idea. Given the east-west orientation with the sprawling vortex across S Canada and the boundary right over/just south of us, I expect to see every p-type this week.

21 here Snow pack frozen solid. Probably some icy spots on the side roads this morning as I don't think there was any wind last evening to dry things up as the temp fell below freezing.

And here is the AM AFD from Mount Holly- As the languishing midlevel vortex remains nearly stationary in south-central Canada, fast quasi-zonal flow will remain across the U.S. with periodic low-amplitude perturbations zipping eastward. Models have trended in two distinct ways the past 24 hours. First, the northern-stream vort max amplifying the late- week system for our area is noticeably weaker compared to simulations yesterday. Second, the progression of the midlevel Canada low allows for more troughing in eastern Canada. The result has been for a reduction in strength (suppression) of the system affecting the area Wednesday through Friday, and a steadily colder solution as well. Deterministic guidance exhibits, to varying degrees, an extended period of wintry weather late this week. The gist of the first portion of the event seems agreeable. Warm-advection precipitation will spread rapidly eastward to the northern Mid- Atlantic by Wednesday night, promoting a round of snow for the area as cold air advecting from the retreating surface high keeps surface temperatures below freezing for much of the area. The weaker nature of the upper-level shortwave trough suggests the strength and advance of the warm nose will be on the weak side, certainly weaker than that predicted by the models yesterday. A lengthy period of light snow is likely in this regime then for much of our area, with the main questions being how far south the potential for snow exists.. A second wave looks to move through the eastern U.S. Thursday night and Friday, which may bring a second round of wintry precipitation to the area. Questions abound regarding this potential, though, with the GFS quite suppressed (keeping most precipitation to our south) versus the more amplified ECMWF. The CMC seems more agreeable with the ECMWF, and the GFS fast-bias may be playing a role in its equatorward shift. However, in either scenario, any precipitation for the area would increasingly favor snow. Thus, felt confident moving precipitation types in that direction and lowering temperatures markedly in the Thursday through Friday time frame. The bottom line for the Wednesday through Friday period is that one or more periods of wintry weather seem likely, with meaningful impacts possible for much of the CWA.

He is, but here is a novel idea- how about giving the MVP to a defensive player instead of the QB all the time? The TB defense was dominant, and the primary reason they won that game. I think Von Miller was the last defensive player to win it, but Manning could barely throw anymore at that point so it really couldn't be awarded it to the QB.

All good info and we have discussed this before, but the OP said something to the effect that it would be depressing or a fail if we didn't get a big storm with the persistent blocking we have had this winter. Sure a -AO/NAO favors more snow than average regardless of ENSO state, that should be evident to every weenie here by now lol, but in my replies to that post I simply stated that it is more likely to come in multiple "smaller" events rather than a KU for the MA in a Nina. I just find the "bar setting" thing to be a little silly, especially given the climo for much of this region tends to be hostile for snow.

I agree. WWS is the best, the original. The oak aged Vanilla is good but not as good. They also do a bourbon barrel aged one, but limited. Only one I have been able to get lately is the oak aged.

That's good stuff. I should have picked one up on Friday.

Pretty big difference for the Friday wave. I like.