CAPE
-
Posts
34,289 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by CAPE
-
Hasn't started yet on WB. Seems late. What else is new?
-
Yeah, despite how good the guidance looks for I-95 east, its either mixy or a dry slot, while N MD is getting wrecked.
-
The developing 850 mb low is just a touch south of 12z at the end of the run. Not sure it would end up that much different overall. Probably a little better for here with temps/p-type.
-
Its further SE/colder than 12z.
-
18z Euro running now. The front end waa thump is a bit further south.
-
He brews some good stuff. I can attest.
-
Uncertainty. That area is very close to the primary and at elevation the warming aloft effs it up for snow initially. Beyond that, the coastal and the dynamics associated with that may be too far east, so any snow may be a function of NW flow and orographic lift on the backside, thus the forecast of snow showers. Ofc snow showers out there can lead to pretty significant accumulations.
-
Yesss. But, we need the obligatory qualifier- well, it is the RGEM at range..
-
Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
CAPE replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
The progression is good though. I wouldn't take the 2m temps verbatim. Low 40s is one thing, but on the backside within the CCB, even if it shows 34-35 , with 850s below 0c, it would be snowing pretty good. There is no getting around some rain for a time with this one, for any place east of I-95 imo...unless the primary doesn't hang on as long/ coastal low track shifts pretty significantly. Not likely at this range though. -
I would tap that shit.
-
2-4 for the front end looks reasonable. Go with that idea for now. Expect nothing else, and if the coastal works out, then its a bonus.
-
Those surface p-type maps are useless garbage. Look at the 2m/850 temps panel by panel. We get killed by the low level warmth during the transition. We need the Euro evolution- everything else is meh right now.
-
Yeah I have liked everything I have tried from them recently. This thing smells AMAZING.
-
Mine looks sort of like that, but more like- rain/snow, snow likely, then rain, then rain/snow, then snow likely. I need today's Euro run to verify lol.
-
Drinking a Cocoa Loco Mexican Imperial Stout from Black Flag. Very good.
-
I am sure there are some complaining about this Euro run, but I wont.
-
I do my pbp solo. What ya wanna know?
-
That is an irrational fear lol. Not happening in this set up. It is almost a certainty we some some rain from this. Question is for how long. 12z GEPS looked quite a bit better than the op btw.
-
Better than the last 2 runs. The Canadian really shat the bed for us. Just a complete torch. I went from hugging it to throwing it out of bed in one run.
-
The thing is, its not always the same- esp here. Clean transfer and proximity of the low to the coast is key. Euro op is snow to slop to rain. EPS implies mostly snow and quite a bit more. In this case, I will favor the former until I see more evidence to the contrary on the GFS and Euro op runs.
-
It seems to have died on WB.
