CAPE

This is pretty close to textbook.

Just the way it's supposed to work with a west based block and a 50-50 low. We have all the features in the right places. No high sliding off the east coast with return flow wrecking the airmass in front.

Who knows, but there should never be one named Ralph Wiggum storm. Sorry Ralph.

Nina, so miller b is a definite thing.

Gotcha. I think the naming is usually based on who supposedly first saw the threat window for the region, not specific location.

For reference, this looks a little better than 0z for that period.

Not sure what the criteria is. I guess you have to claim you spotted the potential first. I probably identified one of these periods pretty early on, but idgaf about storm naming, as long as it snows in my yard.

It has, and I have bemoaned this lame ass cold front. Realistically, the models were probably too quick getting cold into the source region and moving it east from there. The upcoming cold as advertised is by no means brutal, but we don't need the vodka. We need enough of a cold push to shift the thermal boundary, and that looks realistic. Maybe that helps with keeping shortwaves more robust as they move eastward, in conjunction with a bit of relaxation with the NAO towards the end of the month.

I understand the frustration. I didn't even get a flake or a sleet pellet here in the Dec storm. That being said, you could have posted this in banter or the Panic room.

Realistically the potential good period always looked to begin around mid month, so here we are. Lets let things play out over the next several days. We can monitor the identified "threat windows" on the guidance. They will either get stronger, disappear, or get kicked down the road. It could completely fail, Feb might end up transitioning to a more typical Nina, and the Panic room and futility thread will be rockin'.

Are you talking about the next week, or going forward in general? The Pac jet is in the process of relaxing, the EPO is transitioning to negative, and much colder air is going to be injected into Canada- and with the longwave pattern as advertised, that cold will bleed south and east. With that, the baroclinic boundary will be much closer. In addition, a TPV lobe will be on our side- you can see it on the panel I posted. It also looks like the block will relax some. These factors should increase the chances for shortwaves to amplify (and not dampen) more than the current pattern will allow.

Did you consider anything else, or did you arrive at this conclusion by glancing at a single h5 height panel? There are some pretty significant changes depicted between now and that period, which you aren't going to see on that h5 mean.

Outside of the potential around the 26th, plenty of action on the GEFS members for the last couple days of the month. Pretty favorable h5 look at that time with a bit of ridging out west and some relaxation in the -NAO.

Would have to go with the hot hand- anything that shows no snow lol. That is almost all post 25th though so its a pretty good signal for the 25th -30th. Lets see if it holds, disappears, or kicks the can. We will be looking at Feb here shortly.

14 or so acceptable hits in there to my eye, with several biggies. Not bad.

Yeah its 10 days out, but there has been a decent signal for just beyond the 25th over multiple GEFS/EPS runs now. Sadly the trends are not good for next week, but still far enough out where there could be some favorable changes-enough for a light event maybe- esp given the fast, chaotic flow.

If only it was in a place where it actually snowed anymore lol.

Went back and found this. 8" total but 6.5" max measured on the ground. Haven't had a storm that good since. Finished that winter slightly above average, at right around 19". 2018-19 was meh, with the biggest event being 5". Literally nothing since- just under an inch last winter.

You were pretty close on the time. Blue at hour 234. The main wave was crushed south though.

You might be right, according to Mr faith in the flakes' lol.

well here is the gravy .. eta- The beef went south lol

I think that one was a general 6-10. I think I had 7 or so here.

Tired of seeing your phone about to die. You can email these images to yourself and post them here. Only takes like 30 seconds.

I get it, but at some point the masses need to be able to read between the lines when something isn't stated in a perfectly explicit manner. Kinda tired of putting disclaimers/qualifiers on every post to prevent

One extreme to the other.. but an expected shift given the advertised pattern. We need something a bit in between though lol.