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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. Unfortunately it looks like for the most part the only non rain p-type we will be seeing this weekend into next week will be sleet/freezing rain. Not really interested in the ice either, with all the trees I have. Sleet is ok and I guess I am used to the idea now with all the sleet I got here last night lol.
  2. Steady light to moderate snow falling here now. No sleet! Lets see how long this lasts.
  3. I think that is probably going to weaken some and sink more southward along the boundary in the wake of wave one.
  4. Looks like the dry zone has finally passed and the radar is filling a bit. The snow/sleet mix is back lol. Should be some cooling aloft on the backside of this, so maybe I can salvage a couple hours of mostly snow here this morning.
  5. A bit. Looks like the HRRR gets some virga to here lol. RGEM maybe a few flakes. Last 2 runs of the RGEM really captured the light precip zone here overnight pretty well, although it indicated mostly snow, which was incorrect.
  6. The trends were not good. By 18z almost all guidance had the 850 0 line literally right over me or just south, and other than one 20 min period when I had some moderate snow falling, it was mostly sleet with flakes mixed in. Don't think I had the rates here to overcome that warm layer for the most part. I am guessing places just north of me did pretty well.
  7. Essentially a 4 hour event there. Didn't really get going until around 11pm, got way more sleet than snow, and it hasn't been doing anything significant since 330 am lol. An inch or so of frozen stuff out there. Looks like winter at least.
  8. Congrats Baltimore folks. Been mostly a sleetfest here. Must be a sneaky warm layer up there somewhere. The GFS nailed the dry zone just south of the good band across the northern counties. Got that here too.
  9. Maybe briefly, but more likely mixed with sleet. Possibly an hour or 2 of snow near the PA line.
  10. Oddly I am kind of looking forward to the ice event, which I normally dread given all the trees surrounding my house.. Probably because it doesn't appear to be even close to anything devastating, and more likely to be harmless and maybe add to the winter scene.
  11. Here is the "pretty" 18z Euro clown map.
  12. 34 with some flakes starting to fly here.
  13. Better off looking out the window.
  14. I rarely if ever look at it. It is an exercise in futility 90% of the time.
  15. And this isn't always the case?
  16. HL blocking defo makes it more interesting.
  17. Leaves and sticks. Damn wind. Can never keep the leaves where I want them.
  18. Time to let the chips fall. My forecast is for 2-4" with some sleet, and there is also a "concern" for several hundredths of an inch ice accretion at some point tomorrow, before changing back to snow tomorrow evening. Time to focus on the next one, and the one after that. It ain't boring, folks.
  19. My deck is elevated and screwed.
  20. Some improvement on the 12z EPS. Stronger/souther NA vortex...better confluence...stronger surface high pressure compared to 0z. Still work to do.
  21. Need to park a barge out there. Sure see a lot of digital snow on the models after a cold front blasts off the coast following our big rainstorms lol.
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