CAPE

Our shot at frozen is very dependent on the intensity of precip as it comes in. Much better/more expansive eastward on the NAM this run.

I know these surface p-type maps tend to be wonky, but it aligns with the cooling aloft.

12z NAM is warm upstairs as the precip comes in, but it cools to right around 0c at 850 as the precip gets going. Probably snow/sleet before it transitions to freezing rain/rain. Its even pretty good over here, and has the best area of front end snow in extreme NE MD. SE PA, into NJ. Interesting. Hints of some drier air from the NE and some evap cooling maybe.

His overview of the event sounds surprisingly accurate and underhyped.

I am still trying to talk myself into the early week event. Its not working.

Some random flakes flying here. As usual, nothing impressive.

I get the grinds, as usual lol.

Yep. More like it.

The 6z run looks much more realistic, and closer to the GFS. Still nice for your yard and north.

It was close. Looking at h5, there are some subtle differences between the Euro and GFS. The biggest one may be the spacing between the developing shortwave and the big NA vortex. A bit more on the GFS, and so it is able to develop more ridging out in front.

Chasing is fun, but it would be nice to have a legit event in my yard for once lol.

This is only a 6 hour panel, so more snow to come esp for eastern areas on the ones that are wet. The thing to note is on many members, like the op, it is warmish and wet at the start of the event. As usual, not a lot of cold air around. The low needs to be amped and take a damn near perfect track for this to work, esp for the lowlands. Very few southern tracks in the mix.

White ones better than wet ones?

I would take this run and call it a winter.

I will do my best WW impression.

NAM looking icy too. Outside of far western areas, where the combo of higher qpf/colder surface temps will coincide, a legit ice storm doesn't seem very likely. The general character of this event looks like some snow/sleet at that start, then zr, and for the lowlands, turning to plain rain.

Both songs are very good, and raise awareness.

Tool is awesome. Schism is one of my all time favorite prog rock songs.

Dude, every drop of that stuff is precious. I have one in the fridge for Sunday.

Look to the NE.

Lookin PD1-ish?

Sweet.

My current forecast is snow/sleet/freezing rain ending as light rain Tuesday morning. Times are lean, so if I can get a decent coating of something frozen on the ground, I guess I am good with that.

Pretty good summary here from Mount Holly- A messy setup all around, from the synoptic structure of the storm system to the actual surface weather conditions. Low pressure tracking out of the Mississippi Valley region will become highly elongated and likely separate into a weakening parent low tracking west of us and a developing secondary wave over or just south of us. This will lead to a fairly prolonged precipitation event. The precipitation will mainly be driven by warm advection, but that lift source is going to be weakening, and consequently so will the precipitation shield. So may be a case of a long duration but mainly light intensity event. Given the weakening dynamics and lack of strong warm advection, as well as a northeast as opposed to east or southeast surface flow, am skeptical about how much plain rain will become involved outside of the southernmost zones. Currently feel frozen ptypes will be favored in most areas, though that could certainly include a good deal of sleet and freezing rain in addition to snow. Considering the relatively modest expectations for QPF, have an early suspicion of an advisory level event in most of the area, but still a lot of details yet to be determined.

lol NAM Although the Euro has that nice front end band over this way too.