CAPE

The interaction with the NA trough is the main issue on the last couple GFS runs imo. Doesn't allow the wave to deepen as rapidly/close to the coast. The Euro has had this look, and seems to have been the primary difference when comparing it to the better GFS runs. 12z yesterday was still a pretty decent run. Look at the difference:

It has been deteriorating for several runs now. The good waa precip gets shunted SE, and the remnant moisture from the parent low heads up over N PA and S NY.

My forecast is for "around an inch". My goal is to see flakes fall at a decent clip for 30 mins, and end up with a coating that looks more impressive than all the heavy frosts I have seen over the past couple weeks. At least blocking patterns can still make frosty mornings.

Its meso time. NAMs get too much love.

I added that last part in to induce a Ji reply.

6z EPS looks essentially the same as 0z. Probably a tick further SE.

My issue with it has always been the weakening of the wave as it moves east. Its going to dampen. Out where you are, its not really a problem I think the NAM is overly juiced on the front end, esp further eastward, but we will see what the rest of the 12z suite says. I hope I'm wrong.

Look at the numbers when he is pressured. No he was never a very mobile QB, but at 43, he struggles a lot to evade the rush. TB also runs a lot of deeper/longer developing routes. Give him time though, and he will kill you.

I wonder if this post was inspired by the latest NAM run.

I just want to see Brady pressured and knocked down a lot. He is very mediocre if he is forced to move.

^Wow that's a lot of sleet.

lol NAM brings back the thump.

Ofc nothing happens in isolation, so it's always a combination of events that conspire to screw us out of snow.

There is always going to be NS energy to contend with. That is a function of having a weak SPV/-AO. With the high amplitude ridge to the west of the shortwave, the TPV lobe should not be as disruptive as it could be with a much flatter h5 look. Even with the southward trend of that feature on the GFS, it hasn't had a ton of impact to this point. I still think the 'bigger' issue is a bit too much interaction between the shortwave and the NA trough. The Euro has been persistent with that idea, and as a result the shortwave is not as sharp, and the surface low ends up weaker/further SE.

Euro has had the same general trend with that feature. Fwiw, the CMC had the strongest/ furthest south TPV a few runs ago(almost phased), and still produced a good snowstorm. It has since shifted it further north and weaker.

The GFS has trended further west/more interaction with that feature over multiple runs. eta- To be clear, I am not saying this is going to wreck the chances of a good outcome, just that this is closer to the Euro depiction wrt this feature.

It still has frozen. This wave was always going to weaken as it headed east into the shredder. Models were generally too amped/overdoing the waa precip, and have adjusted. Still decent for places further west(mostly ice), but the further N/NE you go, the weaker the dynamics become.

The front end thump on the Euro has been shrinking/becoming less impressive over several runs. Its now all but completely disintegrated. I will take my trace of sleet and some drizzle, and look forward to the mid week threat, er collapse.

Not sure that TPV lobe is the biggest problem. I am talking about what's going on out in front. Focus on the heights to the east on this animation. Less spacing/more interaction with the NA vortex.

Comparing the most recent couple GFS runs to say 0z/6z yesterday, it seems to be taking baby steps towards the Euro at h5. Less spacing/more interaction with the NA trough, and so not as much ridging out in front. A shortwave can't induce deep low pressure at the surface when it is too close to the upper convergence region of a downstream trough.

It's the same or slightly better for the eastern third of the region. Not as good for places further south, and not as juiced up for the higher terrain of VA/WV. A more evenly distributed jackpot zone on the mean, but not as expansive.

6z GEFS-