CAPE

This advertised look ain't too shabby to close out Feb.

That doesn't mean we don't see another decent blocking episode. The propensity for -AO/NAO began well ahead of any SPV perturbation. The NAO simply effed us for this period by retrograding practically to western Canada at exactly the wrong time.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 321 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-023-024-131000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.210213T1300Z-210214T1200Z/ New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD- Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Cumberland-Cape May- Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Pennsville, Millville, Cape May Court House, and Ocean City 321 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland and central, northern and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From 8 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible due to icy roadways, especially Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

This ice storm is mine.

The storm late next week may or may not work out for our region, but it looks like it will knock down the SE/WA ridge and potentially set us up for the end of the month.

LOL. Decent chance things improve and we have more favorable periods ahead. The next week is going to offer some wintry weather, so its not like awful, but we need to shift that trough east to get back into a pattern where it is more favorable for snow.

It hasn't been an issue, but it is now, which fits most of the LR predictions heading through Feb. The relaxation in the -NAO is untimely. The current/advertised H5 pattern sure looks like a Nina, and since we are in a Nina, I will keep it simple and call a duck a duck lol.

Yeah I didn't do very well lol. Was more just a current observation.

Way too many trees here. A light ice coating might look nice and add to the winter scene. Beyond that, no thanks.

My kind of ice 'storm'. A tenth.

Nice pack freshener for the jack zone.

Not much meltage yesterday, and should be less today. We did ok considering. Don't have to drive too far south to find barely anything otg.

Dusting in Easton from the northern edge of wave 2. Nothing on the ground from wave 1. Interesting driving down here, There was some light snow cover in the northern half of Talbot Co, but nothing much south of that.

Outside of a light glaze, eff ice storms. Luckily, despite what models often advertise, it rarely materializes over here. This upcoming week is going to be a waste of prime snow climo in the end. Goddam Nina.

Realistically snow has not been on the table for a while now outside of far NW areas maybe. The late next week threat still holds some promise.

Remember a week ago when the advertised h5 look for the upcoming period looked like this? What we are actually seeing is a simple adjustment to what is more typical for a Nina. Shift the phase of the longwave pattern west and amp the SE ridge.

WB surface maps are better than TT, but they are still bad. You cannot glean anything other than a general idea, which is never good enough. Snow maps are awful ofc. Only surface based map worth looking at(other than temps, pressure etc) is precip.

Apparently that was just Ji being Ji. He is a funny guy, ya know.

Might be the case well NW, but not likely here, thankfully.

I wish it was rain/green. That would be devastating here. Luckily, I don't believe it for a second. Light ice, sure. If I have temps in the low to mid 20s here for that duration, history says it wont be freezing rain. Actual outcome given the pattern- those temps will be 10 degrees warmer.

lol you blamed it on the GFS.

Why the fuuck are y'all so lazy? Surface p-type maps are garbage.

For shits sake its not the GFS. Or the RGEM. It is TT. Goddamn.