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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    He got his Euro blue and was happy for 12 hours. Time for him to call it a winter.
  2. CAPE
    He should construct one for the DC area.
  3. CAPE
    Gotta like the chances with the persistence up top, despite the Pac doing its best to eff it all up.
  4. CAPE
    More ridging out west and colder air directed eastward is the big take away with that look- not to downplay the continued blocking.
  5. CAPE
    Fwiw, extended GEFS shifts the pesky SE/mid south ridge westward by months end, with a continued very favorable look up top. Pretty good outcome heading into Feb if this happens.
  6. CAPE
    A few random flurries would be ok, but mostly I don't want this game impacted by weather. It could/should be the best game of the divisional round.
  7. CAPE
    It is an evolving situation.
  8. CAPE
    I agree, but we are in the short range now and even have the mesos available for this weekend. I guess it has been dry lately, so the potential for maybe a half inch of rain is...different. lol.
  9. CAPE
    The front is wimpy. Temps Friday night will "fall" into the mid to upper 30s for most. Sat temps will rise into the mid 40s. Could there be some splatty wet flakes early Sat morning? Sure. I haven't seen any legit snow here since 2019, and this doesn't excite me in the least.
  10. CAPE
    It was in response to his earlier post about it looking frustrating through day 13. Now peel your panties out of your ass crack.
  11. CAPE
    NINAs hate us lol. My Ji post for the month. 12z GEFS looks active the last few days of the month. Some nice hits among the members.
  12. CAPE
    True, but no other pattern brings the high expectations of one that features a persistent -AO/NAO.
  13. CAPE
    Everyone loves the idea of a big blocking pattern, but then they don't want to be patient. It is a favorable pattern but often can be frustrating. There was a long wait for another winter storm after the December event in 2009. Imagine if that had missed. There would have been nothing until almost Feb. And that was a moderate Nino.
  14. CAPE
    Forecast high is 53 on Friday ahead of the front here. If there is any snow tv it would come Friday night ofc. How's that coastal looking for Sat?
  15. CAPE
    That was the one with the weird evolution- had 2 parts, with the second part being an upper air disturbance I think. Models all busted except for the ICON IIRC. It had DC and western burbs getting the goods while the rest had it further E/NE. I ended up with around 5" here but the forecast was for 10 or so. Didn't get a flake from the second piece.
  16. CAPE
    Yeah I was just looking at that. EPS does too. Some potential with the h5 look here, with a coastal storm implied on the mean, but would need some minor shifts in timing wrt the moisture/advancing cold/transfer verbatim.
  17. CAPE
    It really never becomes an issue on the means. With the weenie HL look being advertised, other than something very brief/weak, the SER will be suppressed.
  18. CAPE
    Temps are probably right about normal there, but colder thereafter. Nothing extreme, but better than it is now. If in fact it verifies lol.
  19. CAPE
    I am starting to think it is possible this advertised 'epic pattern' simply never produces, and then later in Feb, when we have a +NAO and everyone has given up, we pop a PNA ridge, all the stars align, and we thread the needle and jack a nice snowstorm lol. Could happen in a Nina.
  20. CAPE
    It was 22 this morning with heavy frost and ground fog. It will be 30 on Sat night, and maybe 28 Sunday night. More mixing though, so a different situation. Still, not much of a cold front.
  21. CAPE
    Yeah its garbage, but we have known that for awhile. The guidance incrementally backed off on the cold from several days ago, as it is prone to do. Hopefully this doesn't happen with the advertised upcoming cold.
  22. CAPE
    Yeah I think it was 34 here. Not sure what that has to do with the next few days though.
  23. CAPE
    The vorticity is still strung out/elongated, and so the divergent flow (PVA) is not very strong. Plus dry air is advecting in and the upper jet is off to the east. I mean, it could produce some rain/snow showers, and that's basically what the model is depicting. There isn't much chance of anything more than that unless something significantly changes.
  24. CAPE
    There is not a strong vort max/shortwave there. Its a broad vorticity lobe, and they generally don't induce anything notable at the surface.
  25. CAPE
    For Westminster- 46, 49, 48 the next 3 days, then 43 on Sat. Hopefully we see a legit cold front sometime in the next 10 days.
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