CAPE

Pretty good disco from Mount Holly- The High will slowly lift NE on Sunday as low pressure moves into the Ohio valley, and this system should follow the typical evolution with the interior low occluding and a secondary low beginning to take shape along the coastal front to our south late Sunday into Monday. At this stage, guidance essentially proposes two solutions in terms of the evolution of this system: 1.) A fairly progressive system in which the primary low reaches the Great Lakes before the "energy transfer" with the coastal system occurs (the coastal low doesn`t really get going until it is near our latitude in that scenario). This results in warm-advection driven wintry precipitation at onset which then changes to rain/mix for at least part of our area later in the event. With this solution most of the precipitation would occur late Sunday, with lighter precipitation persisting into Monday- Tuesday as the mid-lvl wave passes. 2.) A slower solution in which the energy transfer takes place upstream of our area, and the coastal low becomes dominant south of the area. The mid-lvl wave then further amplifies and closes off near the east coast on Monday, which then results in the surface low tracking slowly N-NE Monday into Tuesday. This solution could result in a fairly long duration precipitation event for portions of the Mid-Atlantic (at present most favored just south of us), and has a more potential from a winter weather standpoint given the longer duration, and more favorable thermal profiles with the low remaining to our south. While this scenario has the biggest "hit" potential, it also has some "miss" potential, as it is possible the the low doesn`t close off until the system is over the Atlantic which would track the system east of the area, resulting in our area only being on the fringe of any precipitation. Given the general trends/biases in guidance in the blocking regime that has prevailed the last couple months, tend to give a bit more weight to the slower/more amplified solution, so slowed down PoPS a bit. Also, despite the tendency for suppressed systems missing us to the south in this regime, this system will likely be amplifying near our region with diving northern-stream energy helping to reinforce it. Consequently made the decision to bump PoPs slightly to the likely range at least for the southern half of the area on Monday, but capped at 60 given the "miss" scenario described above.

You get more snow on the mean.

12z is PERFECT.

There are always multiple paths to victory, and failure, at this range. We just cant know yet.

Six days out, so plenty of uncertainty. I can pretty much guarantee its not going go down like that lol. Take away that late wonky interaction, its a WAA front end hit followed by a dry slot.

Never.

He could have made a better case by using the 6z GFS.

When will we get the big dog? It always happens when we have a blocking pattern, after a few warm up events.

Wonder if the folks in NC are all in on the GFS. Has a bit of support from the NAM. That should give them a boost of confidence.

I think the pretty (absurd) snow maps influence expectations, whether people realize it or not.

What's your call for the next run?

I just glance through that thread at this point. Some are really setting themselves up. I hope it works out ofc, but for now I do my model analysis and keep my thoughts to myself.

This was a strung out and weakening mess. The NAMs were too juiced up, but there was a clear trend to dry up the decent qpf as it moved east. I got exactly what I hoped for though- a solid coating of snow, probably around 0.3". They should have left the forecast alone though- going with the WWA and 1-3 inches here was lol.

Dusting here too. Nice to know it actually can still snow around here.

Steady light snow has begun here.

Wonky. Interesting though.

No. Stop looking at radar and have a drink. Then have another. Eventually you will forget about snow, and it might still happen even without the hand wringing.

35/16 here and cloudy

Been busy today. Just saw the WWA in effect for here, Damn, going with 1-3 inches. More bullish than I expected. Mount Holly AFD- A complex weather pattern is evolving across the eastern two- thirds of the country. A surface low in the central Plains is ejecting eastward, attendant to a midlevel vort max shearing out in the downstream confluent flow across the Midwest and Northeast. Meanwhile, a strong vort max is digging southeast through the prairies of southern Canada, which will force the eastward acceleration of the southern-stream system. A zonally- oriented baroclinic zone extends to the southern Mid-Atlantic, with precipitation spreading into Virginia and North Carolina this afternoon. As the baroclinic zone lifts northward somewhat this evening, a predecessor perturbation will race through the Mid-Atlantic region. With ambient boundary-layer dry air (sufficiently cool given the overcast spreading northward into the southern/central CWA today), a thump of precipitation will spread into Delmarva this evening. Model soundings suggest a few hours of strong omega in the dendritic growth zone, so if the low levels can saturate, some decent snow rates (up to a half inch per hour) may occur. Combined with wet-bulbing effects, a quick one to two inches of snow may accumulate, as advertised via much of the hi-res guidance. Have issued a winter weather advisory for Delmarva for this threat from 7 pm to 4 am.

I was also satisfying my craving for Ji snow. Hopefully I can get a little of the real thing too.

I am almost fringed to the south now on the NAMs. Makes some sense looking at the advertised precip shield. Keeps sinking more to the south as it heads east.

Yup. It can be as good a pattern for the UK as it is here. Worked out much more for them so far.