CAPE
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I was asking about the GFS Para lol. I got the CMC.
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CMC has not been bad here. 36-37 but not for long. GFS is a long duration torch.
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What are the worst surface temps as the coastal is getting going for this area? Low 40s like the GFS?
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Still a ways to go for eastern areas. GFS still torches the surface here for hours with rain falling. That has not changed over recent runs. We would lose all the snow from the front end, and end up with maybe 2-3 on the ground verbatim. Look at the placement of the 850 mb low on the RGEM compared to the GFS as it exits the coast. Hug the Canadians.
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Yeah I know, but eastern areas can sometimes cash in on the sw edge of a developing coastal. I wont mention Boxing day 2010. oops.
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Too much dry slot. We ain't even sniffing the deform band on the NAMs Many hours of light rain/drizzle and then some snizzle and a few snow showers once the upper levels cool. Maybe an inch or so on the back end.
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I would choose Sykesville. Better shot to get in on the CCB as it looks now. That part of the storm is still iffy on the guidance, and subject to some changes imo.
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As usual I sleep through the overnight stuff and evaluate in the AM. And I don't go back and read the thread lol. This is pretty much going as I expected for my yard. I have always hoped the front end would maximize, and had low expectations beyond that. Front end still looks ok, although I think the forecast here of 4-8 through Sunday night might be a bit optimistic.
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I never thought there was enough confluence with this one. The NA vortex is on the move as this system slowly evolves, so we lose the 'suppressive' element and the mechanism to keep the cold feed from the NE as the transfer is unfolding. I knew early on that there would be some rain here, and why I never bought the somewhat suppressed/colder Euro runs.
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Don't forget the E wind effing up the lower levels. Mild rainy day here much of Monday. Oh yeah the Euro caved lol.
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Have to keep an eye on the location and timing of the area of heavier precip that develops to the west of the 850 low as it tracks off the coast. This is close over here with p-type as the cold is just wrapping back in at this time. Verbatim probably heavy rain/sleet flipping to snow.
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It will be interesting to see how the mesos roll as we get more into their wheelhouse. The Fgen banding area will make all the difference for some. As long as the front end stays good and there isn't too much warming, a modest back end is fine. GFS is the one model that still annoys me.
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Surprised the snow map looked that good here given the lack of precip for several hours, with the banding just to the NW. That has been the trend though the last 2-3 runs, as I told you it would be last night when you were sure this was on the road to suppression lol.
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29/11 currently
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31 here as well.
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Chill always returns when there is a legit threat. Its sayin' something that it took this long.
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Friday, HH, WSW, 120 min IPA.
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It was, but still kinda sucky here lol. GFS tho.
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The CMC was actually as warm/warmer, and now it is more in line with the Euro. Good sign.
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Pouring rain here.
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lol yeah because they persistently suck. I literally hate the last 6 runs of the GFS for here.
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The fgen banding is going to be the difference maker locally for the second half of the storm. That also creates local adjacent dead zones, so it can be feast/famine within a very short distance. No way to know exactly where that sets up at this juncture.
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lol that run was nuts though.
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He is right..but did anyone think this was even close to reality? (my yard is the jack zone, so NO).
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For my area esp...eff yeah it is lol. But still..we track and comment on each cycle.
