CAPE

I will take 2-4 ending as slop. Still think it ends up further south, but its a fine line. Wave could also come out flatter and dampen more as it moves east, as has been the tendency in this pattern so far.

I think it looks wonky. Brings the southern sw too far north, without any interaction with the NS vortex. Then it still weakens/dampens the wave and tries to shunt it southeastward at the end, as it feels the compression with the vortex rotating down from the Maritimes under the block. This should end up a bit flatter and further south, and we may end up worrying more about suppression/shredding again.

Ofc it is.

Messed up already lol.

Remember Mount Holly forecast domain is very broad from north to south, so when the say 'suppressed', they are favoring precip chances from around Philly southward.

Mount Holly's take for the early next week threat. I tend to agree with their general assessment. The main story in the long term is the potential system Monday into Tuesday. Some of the operational models, most notably the Canadian, trended towards the GFS solution showing a track mostly suppressed to the south, progressive, and weakening as it gets to the eastern U.S.. The ECMWF still shows a slower solution with the low crossing over our region. However, I am a bit skeptical of the ECMWF solution as it depicts the southern stream mid level trough lifting northeast as it deepens without phasing with any shortwave trough in the northern stream. This seems like an odd track for this time of year, and quite a departure from what we`ve seen with recent storm tracks. None the less, I`ve stayed close to the previous forecast given the poor agreement between models and from run to run.

0z EPS looks essentially the same as previous runs. Still implies a front end thump, but thermals are a tad better than 18z. Snowfall map is almost identical to 12z, ofc there is no way anyone is seeing all snow with that track and the lack of real deal cold in front.

I just know its going to rain here when it precipitates until proven otherwise, so I don't stress at all over model runs.

I thought today was an extremely good day.

Its been complete garbage for anywhere on the east coast for at least the last 3 runs. If it ends up right, I would be a tad surprised, but not shocked.

This is either a step in the path to a worse outcome, or it trends back the other way imo. I am leaning towards the latter based on the overall pattern and the tendencies over the last couple weeks.

Storm after the storm?

There is no way it stays snow over here for long with the primary taking that track, despite what some of the silly ass surface/snow maps are depicting.

This is still an evolving situation. It will trend back south/flatter/quicker transfer. If not, what PSU said, and I will just accept that it cant snow on the coastal plain anymore lol.

12z runs will be telling.

Use incognito mode and paste the link. Usually gets past the paywall.

Not sure if anyone posted this, but here is a link to the CWG article from yesterday on the possible impacts from the perler vertex disruption. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/19/polar-vortex-winter-snow/

Looking ahead, not a bad look here. Decent injection of cold into our source region between the WPO-ish ridge and the TPV. Enough of a trough near AK keeping the sprawling Pac ridge in check, neutral PNA, and still a decent NAO look, although displaced southwestward.. W US trough progressing eastward.

6z GEFS mean implies a damping wave with weaker surface reflection as it moves east, compared to 0z. Pretty much supports the look on the op.

28 when I went to bed. 37 when I got up. Wind picking up now with a rain/snow mix and temp down to 35. I doubt this will be very impressive lol.

GFS made a huge step. It is now depicting the most realistic failure path lol.

Good. Now stop posting this crap.

I think it's gonna snow next week. Maybe just once though. How awful.

mild on mild? wind on wind? rain on rain is intrinsic and goes without saying.