CAPE

Probably my fave of the Nu/alt metal bands, other than SOAD. Effing love them.

Epic!!! If this is our new normal for blocking patterns, its gonna be really tough for snow in these parts. I will blame it somewhat on the Nina and bad luck so far, but there is also that elephant in the room..

I was thinking more about the car

Aren't you moving to Florida in the Spring? Track the hell out of everything and have fun with it. Lets bring one home before you head to a place where it never snows. Err wait..

Who needs actual snow? It's messy and cold and they brine and salt the roads to death.

Well, I certainly can't get enough of tracking potential.

Kind of an odd little band of heavy snow on the front end literally a few miles to my NE. If that's real I need it to expand a tad.

Freezing rain! Yeah I forgot it only shows green or blue. I never look too deeply at that model. And if it isn't frozen, its still rain and doesn't interest me.

Decent thump of rain on the 12z ICON followed by a dry slot, and some pity flakes at the end.

This is likely cooked for the coastal plain. I think its just the Euro and its baby brother that still have any decent snow, and that's mainly for the northern crew up near the PA line. The ICON and CMC are both pretty torcherific.

Not a bad look for early Feb. Not exactly what we want to see up to the NE, but this pattern has the potential to bring some decent cold. That's an ingredient we have been sorely missing.

The forecast for my yard implies maybe an inch of snow/sleet, but I would be willing to bet the warm layer aloft ends up being significant enough that its just sleet, and then goes over to rain. The wave is moving too fast and dampens enough that I doubt there will be any significant frozen on the backend.

It seems to be holding with the front end thump idea with the colder thermal profile. That's good to see. We know how these things have tended to trend towards game time though. The goddamn worm needs to turn.

I was sleeping like a baby for last night's runs, but looking over the guidance this morning it' seems to be slowly slipping away for the southern and eastern parts of the region. Hopefully the Euro holds it's ground and maybe improves a bit, but the latest GFS run is hot garbage for my yard.

I do my best to exude optimism, but it has to be balanced with a strong grasp of reality.

2018-19 was "ok", but the one good storm was more DC and western burb centric. I had a total of 12" here that winter, which was disappointing at the time lol. 2017-18 was actually pretty much average here, 18" or so, thanks to being on the NW fringe of the bomb cyclone and also the March snowstorm. 2016-17 I think the total here was like 10", but 6 of that came again from getting in on the early Jan coastal scraper that was a big snowstorm at the beaches. Complete suckage since.

The thermal profile on the GFS gets worse every run. Verbatim 6z is close to pure rain for many now.

Well, 2 chases it is. lol. It just wont snow here anymore. I see the path to less than an inch for a second consecutive winter.

This is literally right where we want it. DT aleeting?

Pretty close to something good.

HH is mix to snow verbatim.

Drinking one of these. Good stuff.

Have not seen a forecast like this in quite awhile. It could all fail ofc, but nice to see. Monday Rain and snow likely after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday A chance of snow before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 38. Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

From Mount Holly afternoon AFD- This just about covers the range of possibilities with this event lol. I still lean towards more souther/possibly somewhat suppressed wave, but what do I know? 12Z guidance (in general) did trend a little more amplified with the upper-level system thus allowing the primary-low to progress a bit further north before falling apart, which in turn slightly delays the formation of the secondary low. The envelope of sensible weather possibilities remains large, with snow rapidly changing to mix from S-N in the most amplified/northward tracking solutions (UKMET), to the mix line stalling over the area, before transitioning back to snow on the back end (ECMWF), to generally pure snow more focused over the southern half of the area (GFS). Although not explicitly shown in the 12Z deterministic suite, the possibility of the wave being suppressed and the bulk of the precip shield remaining to our south still remains on the table, and this is particularly highlighted by a camp of GEFS members.