CAPE

My snow cover is stale and thinning. Need more snow.

Seems a little warm for early Feb. Used to be more like 41-42. Not that it matters.

Further SE than the previous run.

I think its going to be on the mild side for the next 6 days and rain a couple times. Might get colder after that. Just a guess.

I agree with this. The thing that makes it a little more believable is the PV destruction/TPV lobes migrating and HL ridging galore. Pretty good combo to get some legit cold into the midlatitudes. Nina climo argues it will be focused more west, but with all the HL blocking, at least some of it should make it into the east.

I think that's just discussion too. Everyone here should know the drill by now, esp with op runs.

Can we extrapolate the NAM yet?

lol Come on dude, you aren't new here.

You do ok in marginal setups. Already been screwed by suppression/timing twice with potential snow going to places further south. Could have been decent events for the MA coastal plain.

Other than some esoteric and probably unproven correlations, the NAO is notoriously difficult to predict at long leads. There is a definite correlation to the AO state, and it tends to happen more in Ninos (I think), but beyond that it is tough to call. It has definitely been more persistently in the positive phase during winter over the last 50 years. Maybe that trend is about to shift.

As we approach mid month, GEFS has a -AO/NAO, -EPO, neutral to +PNA.

The block has been pretty effective in mitigating any SE ridge tendency, despite guidance attempting to pop it. For whatever reason in the LR, the models tend to go back to boilerplate Nina look, but it never really happens.

But we needed to see that WB snow probability map to confirm.

I would say not so much. Wrong way from the 0z run. Could also see something along the front, but haven't looked too deeply into that possibility.

Still time ofc, but trends are not good.

6z GEFS does look flatter and further east than 0z run.

Mount Holly's take for the Sunday-Monday potential- Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10 degrees below normal..

Forecast highs here low 40s for Sat and Sun, dropping to 34 for Monday.

No surprise there is plenty of uncertainty for late in the weekend, but this is how to make a forecast and keep all possible outcomes in play. Saturday Night A chance of snow showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 10am, then a chance of rain showers after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Cabin in the woods.

Few pics from around my property today. My seasonal wetland is quite wet. Last year at this time it was mostly dry. I will be trudging around in there seeding it with larvicide in another 6 weeks or so.

Snowing decently here now with some big flakes, temp down to 32. Might get a dusting before this band dies out.

Everyone has their own interpretation of 'busted' I suppose. I didn't get as much as I wanted, nor what many of the models had depicted, but I did get about what I expected, being objective about the general setup, the complexities, and my location.

Radar looks more impressive here now than at other times where it was snowing light to moderately and accumulating, yet just random flakes flying around. I think there is some drying in the mid levels. We have finally reached the end of this protracted snow showery event I think.