CAPE

I am pretty good at faking it.

In the end that is all anyone cares about, whether they admit it or not. Maybe try being a little less abrasive.

Next panel. The 4 or 5 that were tucked a bit inland at 0z are now right along the coast.

It supports the op, which has to be the case at this range, but yeah comparing the 2 runs, a little more clustering on the eastern edge at 6z. Not that much though. Could still see the next op run make a shift NW.

It has more to do with the proximity/strength of the developing coastal low and the resulting east winds. Cant really overcome that because we lose the surface up to 850. That's why the Euro solution is ideal. Ofc more snow goes hand in hand with the colder solution in this case.

Yup if the GFS makes a small adjustment our way and the EURO adjusts a bit further NW(expected) we should do ok. The thermals on the GFS and esp CMC are awful for here after the thump. I want to see that muted. I'm ok with the warmish 850s, but surface temps of 40 for hours is garbage.

I don't care much about amounts. I just want to be able to get out and enjoy it without having to worry about a rain soaked sloppy mess. I am rooting for the coldest solution.

I am probably speaking from ignorance, but maybe if the Euro is going to make a more significant adjustment, it happens at 12z/0z.

The 850 mb low looks more diffuse on the 6z run. Same general idea though.

Euro didn't budge. Surface and 850 low maybe a tad further east.

Yeah if the ens members don't agree with the op at this range then something is broken. It's GFS vs Euro. Which one will cave..

I agree. I wish it were the correct outcome, but I don't believe it will be.

Yes that is the period where it would be most likely.

Sounds like a GFS/CMC blend.

Definitely looks sleety/rainy for a time on the GFS. The warming is legit on the CMC. All frozen everywhere on the Euro, Not sure who wouldn't be rooting for that.

My forecast still has snow changing to rain on Monday, so that should make psu feel a little better.

Whatever the reason, I hope it is correct. Pretty safe bet is something in between.

Current thoughts from Mount Holly- There are still many differences among the models in terms of timing and placement of each low. As a result, there are differences in terms of how far north and west bands of precip will spread, and how far to the north and west the rain/snow line will spread as well. As a result, this remains a low confidence forecast, and much can change. The farther north the storm will track, the more snow will fall across interior portions of the forecast area, and the more rain will fall across the southern portions. However, if the low takes more of a southern track, then less snow will fall across the interior, and there will be less of a chance for precip to change to rain, resulting in more snow for the southern half of the forecast area. Will also have to watch for banding of precip around the center of the offshore low, as heavier bands area possible, and it remains to be seen how far west those bands will spread and where they will set up. Initially, it will be quite cold and dry on Sunday, and it will take some time for the surface moisture to overcome the dry air and for precip to reach the ground. However, temps will remain cold enough for precip to fall as all snow until late Sunday afternoon, when some of the warmer air will lift into southern Delmarva and into Cape May, New Jersey. A little bit of mixing will develop late Sunday and into Sunday night. Generally expecting less than an inch of snow for most of the region Sunday, with 1-2 inches for western portions of the Delaware Valley and Delmarva. Going through Sunday night, as low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast lifts to the north, precip increases in intensity through the overnight hours, and questions remain as to how far north the rain/snow line will spread. Based on the latest trends, think the warmer air will hold off until Monday morning, and looking at a good 2-4 inches of snow from around Trenton or so south and west into the northern half of Delmarva and into southern New Jersey. The highest banding possible in the Atlantic City area. he two lows merge off the New Jersey coast on Monday, and bands of moderate to locally heavy precip will continue to impact most of the region. Looks like enough warm air will be able to spread through southern Delmarva and southern New Jersey, and the bands of snow will mainly impacts areas north of Philadelphia, but south of the Poconos.

6z GFS still hammers the usual spots with the deform band.

Will people ever stop hand wringing over NAM depictions 60+ hours before the start of an event?

GFS will turn this all upside-down so y'all ready?!!?

I will gladly take a weaker system that gives me 6" of snow without 40 degree temps and rain in the middle. Hell fuccking yes.

12z was like this but weaker/less organized. 18z is a bit further south.