CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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I need it to keep doing what it is doing out there now for a few hours. 32 and pouring massive dendrites. Best looking snow I have seen in years.
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It can work out, but this storm ended up a bit weaker and also trended SE. I guess the GFS was on to it. I have the the rates now. Just need to keep this for about 3 hours to get some decent results. Temp right at 32 now.
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We need legit cold in place in the metros/lowlands to really cash in the majority of the time.
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I refuse to look at the radar. For all I know I might be on the back edge, but knowing that would ruin it. I wish I hadn't seen the mesos this morning, as they didn't look too good for here. I just hope I can get a solid coating to an inch. And yeah congrats to the usual people in the favored places.
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Beautiful dendrites here now. Temp at 33. Ground is whitening quickly despite 3 hours of freaking rain. Hopefully it keeps going like this for a while. I am not looking at radar or a short range model. Just looking out the window at what is transpiring, and enjoying whatever I get.
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They don't call it Ridge Rd for nothing.
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All snow now with medium to large flakeage. Temp down to 34. Too bad the ground is soaking wet lol. Starting to see a little slush on the deck.
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This is why I always want legit cold leading in. Had it last week, but the system was a discombobulated mess so the second part didn't do much outside of NW areas.
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I would be thrilled with an inch at this point. If the banding cooperates over this way I might do ok. Dont like seeing it translate mostly to my SE on guidance though.
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I got a lot more than I expected. Weaker/slower developing system and easterly flow FTL.
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Wasted 0.22" on rain here. White rain now lol. Some big flakes coming down but still too warm to stick. Down to 35.
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Snow mixing in here now finally. Temp is 36.
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Winds have shifted from straight out of the east to more NE now that the low is getting going. Temp dropped a degree. See what happens now. Maybe..
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Yup. I just have a feeling once the low gets going, the best forcing/bands will develop more to my east over DE and SNJ. Models have trended that way. Hopefully I can get in on some of it.
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Yeah this is the key for the coastal plain a bit later. Always has been, but with a weaker system than previously forecast, and somewhat more easterly track, it remains to be seen where and to what extent this occurs.
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I can verify this statement lol.
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I am more concerned about my rain gauge not working right. Still on a pretty good streak with precip over here, even if it is mostly liquid lol.
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There is enough of an easterly flow at lower levels with the coastal forming to keep the surface on the mild side for now. For places near and east of the bay have to wait until the low gets going and see where the best banding sets up. Given the projected further east track of the low, I am not really feeling it for here.
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Seems like it has been raining pretty hard here but only 0.04" showing on my station. I need to check my rain gauge.
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Time to break out the SREFs
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I think there will be some good banding later this morning/early afternoon, but most of the mesos seem to focus it mostly east/se of my yard. Could easily envision a rain snow mix here with accumulating snow over in S DE.
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38 and just started raining here. Actually warmer than when I went to bed. Have to see how things play out with the area of fgen forcing. Need that good lift. Without the rates, could end up with mostly snow tv here.
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Some people, maybe.
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Blame snow maps. Or model uncertainty. Oh the horror. Always messing with my emotions. What can't these blasted things be perfect.
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And..it is actually going to snow. I don't see a single model or forecast that suggests otherwise.
