CAPE

He has a way with words..

Most guidance still looks decent for over here outside of the GFS, but there would be some sleet mixed in, which is fine. Not much margin for error though. Need the souther solutions of the bunch to be more correct.

Still need the EURO to completely cave. 6z run was still quite good for many.

WSW will probably be going up for the southern tier counties of PA. Maybe even into central PA, as the north trend continues.

Looking Euroish.

I like the juice over this way on the 3k NAM even though it might not be all snow.

NAMs are sleety here.

Overall things look good for a general light to perhaps moderate event. Problem is there will probably be an area that will receive lighter qpf on the south side for wave 1, and could also miss wave 2 completely- and it might coincide with the same places that have been screwed recently. So yeah there is some angst.

But we were told the late north trend doesn't happen in these types of setups.

That will likely change, its just due to uncertainty. Might expand the WSW for wave 2 further north, and/or put an advisory in effect later today for wave 1/wave 2.

1-3 seems reasonable. Recent runs are juicing up the initial wave some, but that seems to coincide with a more northward axis of better qpf. 12z will probably tell the rest of that story.

We always suck lol. Definitely do better with the bigger events in a Nino with a juiced up stj. Ninas find more ways of screwing the MA in general, although much less so a in blocking regime.

Everything is moving that way. I am leaning towards S PA jack, altho the usual places in N MD will also do well.

GFS kinda has it here lol.

There is going to be a dead zone that misses/mostly misses both waves.

The general issues with next week are the trough axis to our west, and the h5 height configuration to our NE. Euro/EPS has a deeper trough and a bit negative/w stronger ridging out in front, and the NA vortex is a bit further NE. More opportunity for a primary to track to our west.

HREF snow mean looks good.

Nice discussion here by Mount Holly on the possibilities for next week. They aren't buying the Euro/EPS idea so much. Monday/Tuesday... Uncertainty is very high in this period, as guidance is struggling to get a handle on the interaction between the Arctic High over the Central US and an intensifying southern stream disturbance. The EC (with the backing of most of its ensemble) depict the system blasting through the high, with a double- barreled low setup & interior track resulting in a rather warm/wet solution for our area. Conversely the CMC/UKMET depict the High winning out resulting in a suppressed system that doesn`t really impact our area. The GFS is more or less in the middle with the high retreating but the low passing just offshore (which would be Team Snow`s preferred evolution). Although it is always hard to ignore the EC, it should be noted that its solution seems somewhat unlikely given the -AO and associated blocking pattern (although this index will be trending less negative). For now went with temperatures more in line with the GFS for Tuesday, but these could literally be 20-25 degrees too cold if we truly ended up in the warm sector like the EC depicts.

Realistically 4" is top end for wave one here. The snow growth looks pretty meh. Wont be anything like Sunday. Otoh colder temps, at least overnight tonight.

It hates you too Love the 3km NAM. Still time for it to tick north a tad for wave 2.

I despise the GFS. It continually has a precip hole here lol. I am pretty much fine with the rest of the guidance.

Lots of good ones. The Good, the Bad , and the Ugly is a classic. Epic Spaghetti western!

Other than maybe Outlaw Josey Wales, its my fave Clint Eastwood movie.

High Plains Drifter is a great flick.

Not too shabby. So the Euro and the NAMs suck. Pretty much everything else looks acceptable. Everyone drink.