CAPE

Ji needs this trend to stop immediately.

This doesn't seem like a particularly juicy setup to me. If there are in fact 2 waves that hit the same area, then yeah maybe there will be some 8" amounts. Cant say I can recall seeing this happen before in a configuration like this(and be all snow), but certainly not impossible.

Even an occurrence like that is unusual. My wag is the first one is a flush hit for the northern third of the region and a bit mixy south, and the second one is somewhat suppressed, but hopefully not a whiff.

Not a chance it plays out like the Euro is currently depicting. That said, it would seem there is a pretty good opportunity for some frozen this week.

If the Euro is right it is essentially a continuous 4 day deal capped off by an ice storm. Could just modify the date part of the storm thread and make it 10-14.

Yeah I guess it comes down to how one defines "big storm". I think it is dumb to state that winter would be a fail or disappointment if it doesn't meet what ever that criteria is, if it manages to exceed climo snowfall say with multiple light/ moderate events. To each their own though.

I knew having both starting tackles out would be problematic against that defensive front, but still that was a thorough beatdown of a prolific offense. Ofc all you are going to hear in the post analysis is GOAT GOAT GOAT!!!!! Yeah we know, he is good.

WB sucks even worse than it used to.

The way things are set up this week it very likely wont be "clean" for us, unless the Euro has the right idea. Given the east-west orientation with the sprawling vortex across S Canada and the boundary right over/just south of us, I expect to see every p-type this week.

21 here Snow pack frozen solid. Probably some icy spots on the side roads this morning as I don't think there was any wind last evening to dry things up as the temp fell below freezing.

And here is the AM AFD from Mount Holly- As the languishing midlevel vortex remains nearly stationary in south-central Canada, fast quasi-zonal flow will remain across the U.S. with periodic low-amplitude perturbations zipping eastward. Models have trended in two distinct ways the past 24 hours. First, the northern-stream vort max amplifying the late- week system for our area is noticeably weaker compared to simulations yesterday. Second, the progression of the midlevel Canada low allows for more troughing in eastern Canada. The result has been for a reduction in strength (suppression) of the system affecting the area Wednesday through Friday, and a steadily colder solution as well. Deterministic guidance exhibits, to varying degrees, an extended period of wintry weather late this week. The gist of the first portion of the event seems agreeable. Warm-advection precipitation will spread rapidly eastward to the northern Mid- Atlantic by Wednesday night, promoting a round of snow for the area as cold air advecting from the retreating surface high keeps surface temperatures below freezing for much of the area. The weaker nature of the upper-level shortwave trough suggests the strength and advance of the warm nose will be on the weak side, certainly weaker than that predicted by the models yesterday. A lengthy period of light snow is likely in this regime then for much of our area, with the main questions being how far south the potential for snow exists.. A second wave looks to move through the eastern U.S. Thursday night and Friday, which may bring a second round of wintry precipitation to the area. Questions abound regarding this potential, though, with the GFS quite suppressed (keeping most precipitation to our south) versus the more amplified ECMWF. The CMC seems more agreeable with the ECMWF, and the GFS fast-bias may be playing a role in its equatorward shift. However, in either scenario, any precipitation for the area would increasingly favor snow. Thus, felt confident moving precipitation types in that direction and lowering temperatures markedly in the Thursday through Friday time frame. The bottom line for the Wednesday through Friday period is that one or more periods of wintry weather seem likely, with meaningful impacts possible for much of the CWA.

He is, but here is a novel idea- how about giving the MVP to a defensive player instead of the QB all the time? The TB defense was dominant, and the primary reason they won that game. I think Von Miller was the last defensive player to win it, but Manning could barely throw anymore at that point so it really couldn't be awarded it to the QB.

All good info and we have discussed this before, but the OP said something to the effect that it would be depressing or a fail if we didn't get a big storm with the persistent blocking we have had this winter. Sure a -AO/NAO favors more snow than average regardless of ENSO state, that should be evident to every weenie here by now lol, but in my replies to that post I simply stated that it is more likely to come in multiple "smaller" events rather than a KU for the MA in a Nina. I just find the "bar setting" thing to be a little silly, especially given the climo for much of this region tends to be hostile for snow.

I agree. WWS is the best, the original. The oak aged Vanilla is good but not as good. They also do a bourbon barrel aged one, but limited. Only one I have been able to get lately is the oak aged.

That's good stuff. I should have picked one up on Friday.

Pretty big difference for the Friday wave. I like.

2010-11 had it at least early. Most people make reference to Jan 1996, but storms like that are pretty rare around here in a Nina. I am fine with the reality that the likely path to a decent outcome with a setup like this is by getting hit by multiple smaller events. Everyone can root for what they want and set "bars" ofc lol. Wont make any difference in the end.

I suppose it would be disappointing, but then again, Ninas for the MA tend do that, HL blocking or not.

3.8" It slacked off here some after noon and with temps at 32-33 only got another 0.8" . Pretty much done by 1:30.

Hopefully we get some legit Arctic air pressing in later this week. That makes it so much easier to get some frozen. I got in on the good banding and that was the difference in overcoming the mild surface today.

120?

Feeling optimistic? Just because we did well today doesn't mean we don't still suck. I am sure we will find a way to be mostly slop to rain in the lowlands.

No sun today so far. Cloudy and 34. Probably the highest temp of the day post snow(was 37 this morning when it was raining). Looking forward to it all freezing solid tonight.

I told Cobalt a couple weeks back how solid a poster he has become. You have as well, and I probably thought it went without saying. But it is worth saying.

Your over-under prediction was spot on for my yard!