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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. Some nice late back end action here with this.
  2. I am not worried. I should be careful with my messing around for risk of inducing unnecessary panic lol. If it underperforms it wont be because of the dews. The antecedent airmass is exactly what you want for an overrunning event.
  3. More importantly, does weather53 approve of the high position?
  4. 26/12 My thump better not get eaten by dry air. I am all in on the front end. Back end is lookin
  5. Has the HRRR dried up the front end yet?
  6. I have had a few of their ales but not been there yet. Yea we should meet up.
  7. Not sure the norther trends wont continue at 0z for the fgen banding from the coastal. Probably will. I just hope the waa part can produce a solid event, as I have had all my eggs in that basket from the beginning anyway.
  8. One thing I have learned over the years- when there is this much uncertainty/disparity across guidance this close to the event- go with the under. It is a nearly a 100% hit.
  9. It's not on to something, but it is ON something.
  10. @JakkelWx Did you notice Mount Holly went advisory for here? Not that it matters, but an indication of the uncertainty. Our county is expansive N to S, but we are both very close to Queens Anne's county, which has a WSW, and the forecast snow amounts are the same.
  11. HH GFS was kind of a shit run overall though. It has been the worst of the models for here.
  12. It is fun to look at but its absurd and will not ever come close to verifying.
  13. That's not an awful look even for interior NC. If that block is as advertised, and going with seasonal trends, that ridge may well verify flatter. As for my brother, he has already stolen all my snow so far lol.
  14. Dude getting an extremely favorable AO/NAO in Feb is entirely different than having it in mid Dec, plus we have the TPV on our side and some legit cold in our source region. It likes to snow in Feb anyway. As long as the Pac is serviceable, there will be some legit chances ahead with the advertised HL look.
  15. This period continues to look intriguing. I mean, damn. Pretty decent look at h5.
  16. Yeah this is not a new thing. Pretty normal in WAA events with cold in place but relaxing, and ofc there are additional issues with the transfer to the coastal. If anyone is surprised that this will not be a pure snow event almost everywhere, they have probably spent way too much time gawking at dumb snow maps.
  17. Dunno. We will warm above 0 at 850 for a time, so it all depends on how much warming we see at the surface, and how much precip falls during that period. All guidance has us at least into the mid 30s on Monday.
  18. 34/11 Probable outcome for my yard- Cold powder to wet snow, sleet, snizzle, and drizzle, a dryslot, then some rain, wet snow and maybe cold powder on the back end. Let's git it.
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