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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Goddamn dude you haven't learned a thing here have you?
  2. CAPE
    Mount Holly went from a watch to wwa here this morning. Based on trends, maybe they upgrade to a warning, although I wouldn't, because it would be low end if it did verify.
  3. CAPE
    As modeled it wouldn't here. Got the banding and the rates.
  4. CAPE
    Had to post this for the lolz.
  5. CAPE
    I got NAMed by the 12km. 3km looks in line with most of the rest of the guidance here. 4-6" Which translates to 2-4" in reality.
  6. CAPE
    I just washed 4 days of salt off my Jeep. It is definitely going to snow.
  7. CAPE
    GFS has had a less distinct, flatter wave at h5 the last few runs. It could be right, but the other guidance doesn't agree,
  8. CAPE
    We are in the range of the CAMs now, and there will be fgen banding so its time to focus on resolving that. This is probably not going to be a nice uniform distribution of snowfall across the region, because places that aren't getting heavy snow will struggle to accumulate efficiently.
  9. CAPE
    I am sticking with my thoughts from yesterday morning. 2-4. Get under a nice band and may see 6. Low ratios outside of elevated areas are going to be an issue. Further NW will end up with the same or maybe more snow than places further SE due to better ratios, even with somewhat less qpf.
  10. CAPE
    Those p-type maps are not very good. The column is cold. The surface is the issue. This is a rain or snow deal, dependent on intensity.
  11. CAPE
    Yeah I am in between the 2 jack zones lol.
  12. CAPE
    That one over here to my SE is a monster. Being adjacent to something like that would be frustrating as hell lol.
  13. CAPE
  14. CAPE
    I get fringed.
  15. CAPE
    Can definitely see the projected locations of the banding on the 3km NAM
  16. CAPE
    You decide lol. The answer is maybe..
  17. CAPE
    I think there will be banding on the NW edge of the good precip shield- pretty typical. Euro might be hinting at that. Ofc banding in this set up may make for some happy campers, and very close by- unhappy ones. Getting stuck in an area of subsidence with prolonged light to moderate precip wont get it done with the lack of cold at the surface.
  18. CAPE
    The track isn't any different- probs a tick SE- but the precip distribution is, a slight expansion westward of the heavy qpf. Robs my yard of a bit and gives more to places just SE. Overall not much difference from 0z. 4-6" verbatim.
  19. CAPE
    Well, my gut call is based mostly on the idea that my yard is probably not going to be the jack zone lol. It could always be further SE though.
  20. CAPE
    We are solidly in the CAM wheelhouse today. My gut says there will be some NW movement or at least an expansion of the heavy precip/banding even if the track doesn't shift.
  21. CAPE
  22. CAPE
    Not nuts about ice but I would take it if it ends up snow then deep freeze.
  23. CAPE
    Speaking of which...perfect
  24. CAPE
    With marginal temps and the speed of this system, it really comes down to banding. Those areas that get under it probably see 4"+.
  25. CAPE
    6z GFS has best precip further SE. A bit weaker/drier overall.
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