CAPE

The storm late next week may or may not work out for our region, but it looks like it will knock down the SE/WA ridge and potentially set us up for the end of the month.

LOL. Decent chance things improve and we have more favorable periods ahead. The next week is going to offer some wintry weather, so its not like awful, but we need to shift that trough east to get back into a pattern where it is more favorable for snow.

It hasn't been an issue, but it is now, which fits most of the LR predictions heading through Feb. The relaxation in the -NAO is untimely. The current/advertised H5 pattern sure looks like a Nina, and since we are in a Nina, I will keep it simple and call a duck a duck lol.

Yeah I didn't do very well lol. Was more just a current observation.

Way too many trees here. A light ice coating might look nice and add to the winter scene. Beyond that, no thanks.

My kind of ice 'storm'. A tenth.

Nice pack freshener for the jack zone.

Not much meltage yesterday, and should be less today. We did ok considering. Don't have to drive too far south to find barely anything otg.

Dusting in Easton from the northern edge of wave 2. Nothing on the ground from wave 1. Interesting driving down here, There was some light snow cover in the northern half of Talbot Co, but nothing much south of that.

Outside of a light glaze, eff ice storms. Luckily, despite what models often advertise, it rarely materializes over here. This upcoming week is going to be a waste of prime snow climo in the end. Goddam Nina.

Realistically snow has not been on the table for a while now outside of far NW areas maybe. The late next week threat still holds some promise.

Remember a week ago when the advertised h5 look for the upcoming period looked like this? What we are actually seeing is a simple adjustment to what is more typical for a Nina. Shift the phase of the longwave pattern west and amp the SE ridge.

WB surface maps are better than TT, but they are still bad. You cannot glean anything other than a general idea, which is never good enough. Snow maps are awful ofc. Only surface based map worth looking at(other than temps, pressure etc) is precip.

Apparently that was just Ji being Ji. He is a funny guy, ya know.

Might be the case well NW, but not likely here, thankfully.

I wish it was rain/green. That would be devastating here. Luckily, I don't believe it for a second. Light ice, sure. If I have temps in the low to mid 20s here for that duration, history says it wont be freezing rain. Actual outcome given the pattern- those temps will be 10 degrees warmer.

lol you blamed it on the GFS.

Why the fuuck are y'all so lazy? Surface p-type maps are garbage.

For shits sake its not the GFS. Or the RGEM. It is TT. Goddamn.

That is one hellacious ice storm on the GFS. I for one hope it is wrong.

I know you play dumb a lot, but you clearly aren't. Stop.

If you aren't into ice, the next week weather-wise is probably not your thing. It ain't mine lol.

Nice AFD from Mount Holly on the "potential" for the upcoming week- An active weather pattern is expected to continue through next week as two additional storms affect the region over the course of the work week. The clash of air masses over the CONUS through next week is quite impressive. Extreme cold air over the central US, largely driven by a strong -AO and fragmented polar vortex, will collide with much warmer air over the Southeast as we see the development of persistent Southeast ridging, which is favored by the La Nina ENSO state. The strong baroclinicity between these two air masses will keep the storm track active with weather systems impacting the mid- Atlantic about every other day. This will be a difficult pattern to forecast, as the presence of so many systems in short order (including from the current week) is playing havoc with the models. In addition, the thermal profiles of these storms will be challenging as the increasingly strong Southeast ridging will likely favor warmer outcomes with time, but with still a lot of cold air nearby which is often slow to scour out of the low levels. Of the two systems expected this week, the one Monday night into Tuesday currently appears to be the "colder" of the two, with a better chance for more warm air to become involved with the second system moving in towards Thursday. However, both of these systems appear to have the potential to produce large areas of mixed precipitation, with various ptypes likely including opportunities for freezing rain.