CAPE

Para was the first model to hint at some additional action on the backside. I noticed it several runs ago- during the brief time when WB offered it lol.

NAM has 2" of sleet here and a half inch of zr lol. Building an iceberg.

Yeah it has been clear since this first began trending back from what looked a rain event, that the best possible outcome would include quite a bit of non-snow p-types for the coastal plain. But now that we are here, the way to maximize the snow part is to get it to come in hot and heavy on the front end. Maybe the precip 'fork' look will morph into something different in the next few runs.

None of these maps are ever good lol. Just looking at the thermals I know what I need here. Precip needs to come in fast and fall hard, and even then 2-4" is probably the best outcome before mixing. That has seemed like a reasonable expectation, but with these latest solutions implying an initial dry area, that wont work. Now we are seeing some potential on the backside on some guidance, but I don't trust that a bit given how the coastal looks to evolve. That will end up being little to nothing at this latitude.

These things always seem to go from something simple and workable to convoluted. The good front end thump is perfect for this set up with the legit cold/dry air in place initially. That idea seems all but gone. The regular GFS still has it though. I will probably have to kick it out of bed in a couple hours.

This is what it looked like at 12z lol.

Yep that is a hell of a betrayal. Matches everything else though.

It never came out on WB at 18z. What does it look like? It was my baby, but I am sure it betrayed me.

Did the 18z Para have a malfunction?

Looks like it. I just hope I can get in on the goods of one or both. Kind of looking betwixt and between here for the snowy parts.

I think we have an evolving situation with the back end. Euro now has 4"for southern DE. That dead zone is kind of brutal, but will probably change.

I just noticed my rain gauge says 1.25" I forgot about the snow/sleet/ice caked on there that melted in the last 2 days. I think I probably got 0.6" or so last night. It poured for a while.

Getting the good front end isn't as critical up where you are as the warming aloft occurs slower and doesn't last as long, outside of maybe the NAM.

I'm blaming the alcohol.

Dammit you quoted my post before I fixed my homophone abuse.

Absolutely. But we need the precip to come in quick and heavy for some decent snow, because there is no denying the warming aloft.

Eh its frozen in the end. I hate it when I am expecting all snow and I start to hear the pingers. In this setup, I would take it over freezing rain, and given the uncertainty, even up your way I would be prepared to see more than you expect or want.

Given the advertised strong LLJ and the likely warming from 850-700mb, imo 2-4" is a win along/east of I95 before a flip to sleet/zr. This is far from an ideal set up for the lowlands.

Wait, the other day you said you weren't picky.

Nice thump for DC-Balt and over this way on the 18z GFS.

Yeah this has trended colder at the surface, at least. The warm nose aloft is one issue, and that is a beast on the NAMs, the other is how this storm is morphing from a nice front end thump to a one-two punch sort of a deal. There will likely be an area that largely misses out on both if that verifies. The front end is where it is at for places further south/east because there will be legit cold/dry air in place. Just need the goddamn precip to come in hot and heavy to mitigate the warming aloft for a few hours. If it is delayed or light, forget it.

I will keep hugging the Para until it screws me. Coming soon..

Mylar Wizard DIPA for HH. Another good one from Black Flag.

I know where my yard is. I tracked this thing and contributed, but now is the time to stay in banter for me. I will take my sleet, fr rain, and probably plain rain, and like hate it.

NAM is a sleet/zr bomb for most verbatim.