CAPE

Mount Holly be like- what happened to the cold? Coming out of the weekend guidance has taken a fairly large shift. Previously a cold arctic airmass was anticipated to drop south over the central CONUS ushering in a well below normal airmass, however with the 18z and 00z suite, guidance is not nearly as bullish on the cold air dropping out of Canada. I`m hesitant to go all in on newer guidance and suggest near normal temperatures for next week such as the 00z deterministic guidance indicates, so I`ve offered a compromise of a slight trend towards a warmer solution for next week.

GEFS says there is still a chance for Sunday. EPS made a slight tick NW, and GEPS says forget about it.

Keep hope alive.

lol I went back and found that thread too. Great story, and similar to my experience that evening, minus the goose.

Went back and looked. It was the 25th of Jan.

Was that 85? I guess it was. And for some reason I thought it was in early Feb. I remember there was some snow on the ground but it was mild and melty that day. Temps were in the low 40s or something. We have discussed that one on here quite a few times. Instant whiteout, thunder, and legit flash freeze. It had it all.

My snow cover is stale and thinning. Need more snow.

Seems a little warm for early Feb. Used to be more like 41-42. Not that it matters.

Further SE than the previous run.

I think its going to be on the mild side for the next 6 days and rain a couple times. Might get colder after that. Just a guess.

I agree with this. The thing that makes it a little more believable is the PV destruction/TPV lobes migrating and HL ridging galore. Pretty good combo to get some legit cold into the midlatitudes. Nina climo argues it will be focused more west, but with all the HL blocking, at least some of it should make it into the east.

I think that's just discussion too. Everyone here should know the drill by now, esp with op runs.

Can we extrapolate the NAM yet?

lol Come on dude, you aren't new here.

You do ok in marginal setups. Already been screwed by suppression/timing twice with potential snow going to places further south. Could have been decent events for the MA coastal plain.

Other than some esoteric and probably unproven correlations, the NAO is notoriously difficult to predict at long leads. There is a definite correlation to the AO state, and it tends to happen more in Ninos (I think), but beyond that it is tough to call. It has definitely been more persistently in the positive phase during winter over the last 50 years. Maybe that trend is about to shift.

As we approach mid month, GEFS has a -AO/NAO, -EPO, neutral to +PNA.

The block has been pretty effective in mitigating any SE ridge tendency, despite guidance attempting to pop it. For whatever reason in the LR, the models tend to go back to boilerplate Nina look, but it never really happens.

But we needed to see that WB snow probability map to confirm.

I would say not so much. Wrong way from the 0z run. Could also see something along the front, but haven't looked too deeply into that possibility.

Still time ofc, but trends are not good.

6z GEFS does look flatter and further east than 0z run.

Mount Holly's take for the Sunday-Monday potential- Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10 degrees below normal..

Forecast highs here low 40s for Sat and Sun, dropping to 34 for Monday.