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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Ground "truth" is not much different than 12z.
  2. CAPE
    That is correct. It is not really an issue of the track so much on the Euro.
  3. CAPE
    I expect it will be more in line with the rest of guidance at 0z. One way or the other lol.
  4. CAPE
    In our region, east of the higher terrain, you jackpotted.
  5. CAPE
    Banter.
  6. CAPE
    Shortwave is not as sharp and dampens as it comes east. Weak pos this run.
  7. CAPE
    18z Euro looking maybe a tad more suppressed than 12z.
  8. CAPE
    Just juicing up a bit pretty much gets the whole region into the good precip shield. Maybe just wishful thinking, but I cant see this amplifying too much more given the flow and the configuration at h5. Maybe a slight tick NW, which is about all I can afford here lol.
  9. CAPE
    Left rear quad looks favorably placed. Hope this pretty much holds as is.
  10. CAPE
    Air flow converges into the base of a trough, then diverges, or accelerates out of it (just east of the vorticity max at h5) and you can also see this by looking aloft at the jet streak.
  11. CAPE
    Next panel
  12. CAPE
  13. CAPE
  14. CAPE
    I would tend to agree, but there is still a fast flow and it would seem amplification will be somewhat limited, this is going to be in and out in less than 12 hours, and it appears it will occur late late Sat night into early Sunday, so that sort of evens things out a bit.
  15. CAPE
    This is a possible outcome with the sort of h5 look being advertised. I would sign up for that.
  16. CAPE
    But you can say this 9 out of10 times there is a chance of snow. Be adventurous and daring. Chiefs by 17!
  17. CAPE
    Yeah there is some moisture available ahead of the Arctic press. I know some here live in fear of cold and dry but not me. I will take my chances. Love the idea of a moderate cold powder event followed by some Siberian cold. Been awhile. Chasing a KU in the MA in a Nina is pretty low probability, and it may still happen beyond this as things relax up top.
  18. CAPE
    Been busy today so just looking over the means. Goddamn this is a radical look. Wow.
  19. CAPE
    Like this?
  20. CAPE
    Continuing those contours over this way there was probably a sloppy inch or 2. I guess in the context of what was going on before and after, it was easily forgettable.
  21. CAPE
    Huh. No recollection. Must have been rain here lol.
  22. CAPE
    I thought the one after the late Jan event was the first of the 2 big storms in Feb.
  23. CAPE
    This one might be the "collective will" event that @North Balti Zen posted about.
  24. CAPE
    Nah I haven't created a storm thread since the last one I started ended in a train derailment. Let the mods take care of it.
  25. CAPE
    Y'all thought I was kidding with my 'keep hope alive' post yesterday after the HH GEFS came out.
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