CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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There are multiple lows initially and that one becomes the primary. No idea if that is "real" or not. Convective feedback!
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Dynamic cooling/forcing to the left of the 850mb low track gets it done for SE VA. That would be some super low ratio snow if it did stick verbatim. Saw this same sort of thing further north in NJ on the 18z run yesterday. It's possible even with the meh airmass.
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The late week thing has me a little more interested than I was, after seeing some op runs with a southern track, and then looking over the ens means this morning. The pattern does look conducive for a KU, but right now I am thinking small- like really small. After next to nothing last winter and nothing so far this winter, I just want to see snow falling and sticking lol.
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I changed mine back in the early fall. Its happening.
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My thoughts haven't really changed. The pattern is favorable with the HL block and some improvement on the Pac side. Late week still looks interesting, as does the period early the following week. Time to shift the focus from tracking the longwave pattern to tracking specific threats.
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EPS mean has it very close to -4 around the 8th-9th, then it gradually rises back to -2 and it starts to slightly decline at the end of the run.
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I made the attempt by posting the "more useful" surface maps.
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Ended up with 0.87" of rain. Sunny and 50s with some wind will be welcome today, before the next round tomorrow.
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Here come the useless snow maps in 3..2..1..
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LR op run meltdowns are the best.
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Blocking apparently transient, or bootleg.
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A couple panels from the 0z EPS mean for late next week. Fair amount of spread among the members re p-type and track.
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I think the bigger risk for failure now might be a miss to the south, as we saw on recent GFS and CMC op runs.
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GEFS looks solid for late next week. Some really nice hits among the members.
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The hell is going on in here? Late night weenie takeover? Led by Ji panic?
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By midnight! lol Things have shifted a tad since then. Looked like temps would be rising this evening. Been in the 30s all day here until the last hour. Up to 40 now. The rain ended up a bit colder. 50 tomorrow.
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Try a beer. Try a real one- a craft ale, maybe a fruity/juicy IPA or something, not a Bud lite lol. I wouldn't go straight to trying liquor, although a lot of young adults do just that. Jager bombs ftl.
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Here are the "plows" they use lol.
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Temps are marginal. We know that. It can still work. The problem is h5, h85, and the surface don't congeal in time for our latitude.
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Look at the evolution at 500 mb. It's wonky af. Short answer is it all comes together too late/too far north for us. eta- I meant to reply to @Scraff lol
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Its real lol. Ralph must have been kidding. Snow plow?
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I generally agree. I think the ensemble members/mean maps have a little more value once the models hone in on an actual threat- provides an indication of the confidence in the event for given locations, but should never be taken even close to verbatim wrt to amounts.
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That map was the mean for the 8th to the 12th. That ain't bad for 7 days out.
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I am thrilled to be considered top poster though. I had no idea!
