CAPE

I wish I could have been a little unlucky instead of a lot unlucky then.

Can always thread a needle, and that was pretty marginal. You didn't have to go too far east find just another cold rain event.

I get it. I am still in shutout mode here lol. I was looking at the Pac jet on the GEFS this morning, and early in the run, it's split and the northern component is still straight into Canada, with the southern part well to our south. That looks odd and not conducive to storms here, esp not cold ones. That changes in a major(and favorable) way by the end of the run.

I don't think a lot of folks really grasp how much Pac puke has been hurled into Canada. That's one large factor in the failure to produce despite the -AO. It is gonna change though in a pretty big way.

Huge difference in our nearby source region. And LR 2m temps verbatim are the lolz

The blocking we have currently would be fine but there is a split flow and nothing but Pac air around for the near term. It looks like the pattern evolution will finally get some decent cold in our source region via EPO ridging, but the tradeoff may be a weaker -NAO. We always flirt with failure no matter what the pattern is, but given how we seem to fail more often lately with marginal air even with pretty favorable h5 looks, I am all for getting some legit cold in here.

Lets see what @WxUSAF thinks. Would probably be better to rename this thread as well to make it more clear as to the content.

We used to in the past IIRC.

I have been thinking it might be better to have 2 threads- one for tracking short/medium term threats( like inside 10 days) and one to discuss h5 patterns and larger scale phenomena/indices. Just a thought.

The general themes I see on the ens members, looking over them quickly, is either a more amped/phased solution with more precip (but warmer), or weak/sheared and south. The former may work out for NW areas for some frozen, but its not a good setup for those east of the fall line with not much cold available. The latter probably doesn't thrill anyone. For my yard, I don't care much for the trends over the last several ensemble runs for next week, but some changes are likely. My focus is still towards mid month and esp beyond. eta- I looked at both the EPS and GEFS. GEFS has more weaker/south solutions than the EPS

I think there may have been 5 mins of sun today. Bust. Maybe tomorrow, High of 39.

For at least half this forum the ground truth is exactly the same. The difference is there is hope that won't continue.

Colder air is still on schedule for mid to late month. Have not seen this in ages.

0z EPS for the next week threat-

He doesn't bother me, and he still makes me chuckle sometimes even though his routine is old and never changes.

You didn't do that correctly.

I have seen 14 flakes man. And my brother in Greensboro NC is getting actual snow in a couple days. patience the better pattern has not yet begun

Still a signal for something, but not as good as the 12z run. Lets see if I can do the bingo card thing. we are still in the game plenty of time for changes- still 6 days out we just cant know

I will keep watching it lol. Heck my yard would be a decent spot to benefit, but even for me it would take some major changes that seem unlikely at this range. At this point coastal SBY over towards coastal DE may see some light precip on the NW edge.

It won't make any meaningful difference at the surface or 850 mb. It's still there and without any phasing, there is really no way for the coastal low to gain latitude with that compressed flow out in front. The only way this was going to work imo was if that NS vort ended up far enough west to at least partially phase in time.

Yay another fukkin snow map!

This has always been the most realistic time for the beginning of our best window of opportunity.

Do you by any chance hunt animals for the kill but don't eat the meat?

I think my brother, who oddly enough lives NW of Greensboro NC, has had more snow than me the last couple years lol.

Baby steps!