CAPE
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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
CAPE replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
The progression is good though. I wouldn't take the 2m temps verbatim. Low 40s is one thing, but on the backside within the CCB, even if it shows 34-35 , with 850s below 0c, it would be snowing pretty good. There is no getting around some rain for a time with this one, for any place east of I-95 imo...unless the primary doesn't hang on as long/ coastal low track shifts pretty significantly. Not likely at this range though. -
I would tap that shit.
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2-4 for the front end looks reasonable. Go with that idea for now. Expect nothing else, and if the coastal works out, then its a bonus.
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Those surface p-type maps are useless garbage. Look at the 2m/850 temps panel by panel. We get killed by the low level warmth during the transition. We need the Euro evolution- everything else is meh right now.
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Yeah I have liked everything I have tried from them recently. This thing smells AMAZING.
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Mine looks sort of like that, but more like- rain/snow, snow likely, then rain, then rain/snow, then snow likely. I need today's Euro run to verify lol.
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Drinking a Cocoa Loco Mexican Imperial Stout from Black Flag. Very good.
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I am sure there are some complaining about this Euro run, but I wont.
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I do my pbp solo. What ya wanna know?
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That is an irrational fear lol. Not happening in this set up. It is almost a certainty we some some rain from this. Question is for how long. 12z GEPS looked quite a bit better than the op btw.
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Better than the last 2 runs. The Canadian really shat the bed for us. Just a complete torch. I went from hugging it to throwing it out of bed in one run.
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The thing is, its not always the same- esp here. Clean transfer and proximity of the low to the coast is key. Euro op is snow to slop to rain. EPS implies mostly snow and quite a bit more. In this case, I will favor the former until I see more evidence to the contrary on the GFS and Euro op runs.
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It seems to have died on WB.
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Yes, Very similar to 18z overall, and to be fair the 0z run was good too, just not as good over this way. I need to see the op with the coastal in a better spot now.
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Yeah that was a really good run. Lets hope the 'trend' continues.
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I think the Leesburg dudes will still be high fiving today. Except for Ji ofc.
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Location.
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A few inches of snow is fine with me. I am not picky given how awful it has been the last couple years. But what is being advertised now would result in whatever falls immediately going to slop and melting, then maybe some light snow showers on the backend. Up your way you have a decent chance to escape the boundary layer torch. Me? I hug the Canadian lol.
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Thanks, good info. This is a complex situation (as usual). If the NA vortex was holding the confluence in place longer my area might do ok with a west track/transfer deal, but unfortunately things are loosening up top with the block, that vortex is exiting, and this system is a slow evolving one. Hopefully the front end can deliver 2-4", but beyond that, not liking what I see on guidance.
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Ok I feel better now. GFS has done well with our miss to the south. Euro had weak sauce for many runs down there before it caved. Not sure about the CMC.
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The warming is legit on the GFS and Euro for the coastal plain. Gotta hug a CMC like solution. Too bad its the worst model.
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@JakkelWx Biggest problem on the Euro is we dry slot. Surface up to 850 is marginal for a while but the light precip is a killer. At least we don't have to worry about our digital snow disappearing in the next couple runs lol.
