CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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0z EPS- 6z GEFS-
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Barney in the lower 48
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I cant argue with this at all.
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I am a stickler for what a true block is, and this is the defining characteristic. It isn't just seeing red at h5 up over GL.. a block does just that- it literally blocks the flow/ progression of waves.
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Yeah Definitely. I mentioned both this morning when I looked at the ensembles. 18z GEFS actually looks "better" for the following piece, with more northern track and more precip, but it also looks warmer. Interpreting it verbatim on the mean, it looks pretty good for your area. Long way to go ofc.
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Not a bad look on the mean. In the game.
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Its cutoff from the NS. Its just going to roll on eastward.
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Pretty classic look. Might help if there was a bit more spacing- that next wave is right on the heels. Also maybe a bit too much of a good thing to our NE.
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Yeah that piece has been there, but its actually weaker and later this run.
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Really need at least some NS interaction though.
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He has his opinions on NWP, which he is certainly entitled to, but opinions not backed by facts aren't worth much in the scientific community. Not sure why he even posts here, other than to troll.
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I am not a fan of snowfall maps, esp those generated from op runs, and taken verbatim. They are awful in most cases. However, the ens mean maps- when there are threats in sight- do provide an indication of confidence in the prospects for frozen for a given area, over multiple runs.
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Looks a lot better than the 0z run over here.
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The Pac Jet poleward shift/relaxation is the key. We need the vortex there, but we don't want a one-eyed pig sitting in the GOA with no ridging underneath/downstream. The means are advertising the perfect balance going forward, and a sweet pattern overall. Difficult to imagine a better h5 look.
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Headed to Cape Henlopen? Awesome park. Love going there in winter. You live in a great area. If only it snowed a bit more.
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But that should make you happy.
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There are multiple lows initially and that one becomes the primary. No idea if that is "real" or not. Convective feedback!
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Dynamic cooling/forcing to the left of the 850mb low track gets it done for SE VA. That would be some super low ratio snow if it did stick verbatim. Saw this same sort of thing further north in NJ on the 18z run yesterday. It's possible even with the meh airmass.
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The late week thing has me a little more interested than I was, after seeing some op runs with a southern track, and then looking over the ens means this morning. The pattern does look conducive for a KU, but right now I am thinking small- like really small. After next to nothing last winter and nothing so far this winter, I just want to see snow falling and sticking lol.
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I changed mine back in the early fall. Its happening.
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My thoughts haven't really changed. The pattern is favorable with the HL block and some improvement on the Pac side. Late week still looks interesting, as does the period early the following week. Time to shift the focus from tracking the longwave pattern to tracking specific threats.
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EPS mean has it very close to -4 around the 8th-9th, then it gradually rises back to -2 and it starts to slightly decline at the end of the run.
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I made the attempt by posting the "more useful" surface maps.
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Ended up with 0.87" of rain. Sunny and 50s with some wind will be welcome today, before the next round tomorrow.
