CAPE

He could have made a better case by using the 6z GFS.

When will we get the big dog? It always happens when we have a blocking pattern, after a few warm up events.

Wonder if the folks in NC are all in on the GFS. Has a bit of support from the NAM. That should give them a boost of confidence.

I think the pretty (absurd) snow maps influence expectations, whether people realize it or not.

What's your call for the next run?

I just glance through that thread at this point. Some are really setting themselves up. I hope it works out ofc, but for now I do my model analysis and keep my thoughts to myself.

This was a strung out and weakening mess. The NAMs were too juiced up, but there was a clear trend to dry up the decent qpf as it moved east. I got exactly what I hoped for though- a solid coating of snow, probably around 0.3". They should have left the forecast alone though- going with the WWA and 1-3 inches here was lol.

Dusting here too. Nice to know it actually can still snow around here.

Steady light snow has begun here.

Wonky. Interesting though.

No. Stop looking at radar and have a drink. Then have another. Eventually you will forget about snow, and it might still happen even without the hand wringing.

35/16 here and cloudy

Been busy today. Just saw the WWA in effect for here, Damn, going with 1-3 inches. More bullish than I expected. Mount Holly AFD- A complex weather pattern is evolving across the eastern two- thirds of the country. A surface low in the central Plains is ejecting eastward, attendant to a midlevel vort max shearing out in the downstream confluent flow across the Midwest and Northeast. Meanwhile, a strong vort max is digging southeast through the prairies of southern Canada, which will force the eastward acceleration of the southern-stream system. A zonally- oriented baroclinic zone extends to the southern Mid-Atlantic, with precipitation spreading into Virginia and North Carolina this afternoon. As the baroclinic zone lifts northward somewhat this evening, a predecessor perturbation will race through the Mid-Atlantic region. With ambient boundary-layer dry air (sufficiently cool given the overcast spreading northward into the southern/central CWA today), a thump of precipitation will spread into Delmarva this evening. Model soundings suggest a few hours of strong omega in the dendritic growth zone, so if the low levels can saturate, some decent snow rates (up to a half inch per hour) may occur. Combined with wet-bulbing effects, a quick one to two inches of snow may accumulate, as advertised via much of the hi-res guidance. Have issued a winter weather advisory for Delmarva for this threat from 7 pm to 4 am.

I was also satisfying my craving for Ji snow. Hopefully I can get a little of the real thing too.

I am almost fringed to the south now on the NAMs. Makes some sense looking at the advertised precip shield. Keeps sinking more to the south as it heads east.

Yup. It can be as good a pattern for the UK as it is here. Worked out much more for them so far.

My friend outside of Manchester has had snow on the ground 5 different times in the last 2 weeks.

I have had 4 warned events here since 2016, 3 of them low end. I know SE areas over towards the beaches had big snow events in both Jan of 17 and 18. Maybe places further west right along the bay have missed out on some of these.

I haven't thought too much about it, but the LR looks I am seeing don't imply a 'close the shades' situation. Historically it finds ways to snow in February, but we know we are in somewhat different times. In general I like seeing a mechanism to inject polar air into the midlatitudes, but we need the Pac to cooperate enough to allow it to propagate east.

Cold leading in, then cold behind is the general idea on the means. so temps are an obvious problem esp for the lowlands, and the coastal transfer has the typical look of occurring too far north/too late for our area. Maybe the WDI will overwhelm the complexity and high probably of failure lol.

Not impossible, but all kinds of potential issues with this one. We need something simple lol.

Some decent cold air potential during this period on the EPS. There is a mechanism to inject cold southward between the WPO/Chukchi ridge and the TPV, but most of it ends up out west. For this period, the Pac improves enough to allow the mean trough to shift eastward, but it appears to be transient on the means. A long way out so we will just have to monitor the trends as always.

Need it to be juiced up on the front end, and this is a disorganized system in a weakening state as it moves east, so that is very much in question. For eastern areas, If we don't get decent precip early, it will be a few sleet pellets to rain. This literally happens all the time in set ups like this.