CAPE

WInd is cranking here now. Temp up to 40.

Heavy snow shifts to NE PA/SE NY tonight. Those areas look good for 20"+.

Temp up to 37 here with a half inch of rain so far. Wind picking up too.

South central PA getting crushed. Altoona would have been the place to chase.

Maybe the hint of a wave along the front as the cold comes in. Probably the usual cold chasing. Looks like we will at least be cold at this point, but probably dry.

Rotate it on your phone and save, then upload.

I guess it changed its mind lol. Meanwhile, still 34 here and finally some heavy rain. Been pretty lame up until now.

Once it flips the snow is over, other than some really insignificant stuff on the backside. By the time the warm nose moves off and CAA commences, the heavy snow is well NE.

And they puked out a healthy dose of brine on the primary roads over here, for rain lol. At least most of it will be washed away by morning.

Still 34 here and ripping fatty raindrops. I'd feel better if it was 44. That's for later this evening. with maybe some thunder.

I am in the hot air area that's feeding it.

Good thing I skipped lunch.

KBS Maple Mackinac Fudge Imperial Stout This might be the most chocolate prominent stout I have ever tried. Its freaking good. I feel like I need to hit the treadmill though.

Pummelled?

34 and rain. At least its not 33.

Front enders usually fail here because the precip almost always arrives late, and the favorable temp profiles are long gone.

Awesome look, if only the low wasn't driving north into the lower bay.

How much rain for your yard? I am glad to see a bit of a precip min modeled over here. Maybe I can escape with an inch. The heavy stuff looks like it will be focused SE towards the immediate coast.

28/22. Both of those numbers will be increasing significantly over the next several hours.

Thunder in the forecast here tonight, with heavy rain. It will probably change to sleet late so maybe I can get some thunder-sleet.

Significant sleet will stay around a while, so there is that.

Barometric pressure obs go here.

No doubt the fact that its mid Dec, warm ocean temps etc are major factors. For the lowlands esp we need a damn near perfect h5 setup, or at least some anomalous cold. This setup would likely have a different outcome if this were a legit Arctic air mass. But yeah I would take my chances even over here with this same general setup in another month. I agree the looks we are seeing on the means are good enough to keep the MA in the game moving forward, assuming they are correct. Also seeing hints of an EPO ridge popping again. We will see how that works out.

WRT to this event, even though there is ridging up over GL, its not what I would consider an "effective" block for this area. If it were, the 50-50 low wouldn't be hauling ass up into the NA. So in this case we really needed to thread the needle- to time everything perfectly, because that low and the associated confluence (and surface HP) are on the move. We really aren't getting the necessary compressed flow/suppression, which would have inhibited height rises out in front and forced the low track further south.