CAPE

What was your rain total?

That squall line is here now, and the temp is dropping fast. Went from 56 to 46 in minutes.

EURO Weeklies for around the same time.

Extended GEFS suggests its temporary. Keep in mind the latest run is from 0z yesterday.

As for the NYE/day "threat", EPS says nope(maybe one member suggestive of frozen). GEFS has 6 or 7, with a couple nice hits.

GEFS has been trending that way for a few runs now. EPS still looks ok, but we all know the PAC is precarious, and we also know a gigantic, perfectly placed, sustained west based -NAO is not likely to materialize and completely save us. We are going to have to navigate a pattern with warts in the coming weeks, and hopefully we get a few chances, just like always.

Still 56 here at 6am. Looks like that thin line of heavy rain right along the bay marks the front. Maybe I can add a little to the 3.20" of rain overnight. Oh joy.

Well it looks like I maximized on the rain after all. What else is new. 3.05" That intense squall line just blew through and the temp has started to fall. Was 64, now down to 57.

Extraordinarily so. And the GFS has been on a cutter bender lately.

Maybe. Most guidance says I might have to drive south to see a flizzard.

Can we get just a couple flakes here? A dusting maybe? lol.

18z GFS continues the cutter parade.

Wind driven rain has finally arrived. Still 60.

Latest from Mount Holly on wind potential- Winds between 925 mb-850 mb will average 85-95 kt tonight, and with heavy rain and a tight pressure gradient, a good deal of those winds will mix down, especially along the coastal areas. Even back towards southeast Pennsylvania, the LLJ will average 75-85 kt winds. The High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect for most of the areas, but will make one change. Currently expecting 60-70 mph winds along the barrier island of New Jersey and into coastal portions of mainland New Jersey, as well into Sussex county, Delaware. Will upgrade from Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning there. For the rest of the region, maximum wind gusts will range from 45-55 mph.

Pretty 'warm" at the surface here. 63. Rain on the doorstep. With that strong LLJ, maybe some of those winds could mix down? Already had some random gusts earlier when the sun was peaking through the clouds.

Don't we need some actual cold before we can have a thaw?

SPV is MIA at the end of the GEPS run.

Evolving pattern. Patience!

Not even raining here yet lol. Still 62.

Not bad at D10. Gets a lot better after that. Not in love with the Pac look on the mean towards the end of the run. Still suggestive of too much energy dumping/amplifying out west. Better look than the GEFS though. Hopefully we end up in a good place rolling that forward, and the extended GEFS and CFS have the right idea with a more favorable look in the EPO domain.

Generally agree with your assessment. EPS looks pretty decent at h5. Looking at the individual members there are a handful that have a moderate snow event during that window similar to the op,. Idk, a weakish signal for something day 10?

With not a lot of cold around, this is a "safe" way to get a moderate event for the lowlands. Actually need the NS energy to suppress the SS wave some. Ofc it just happens to work out that way this run, but plenty of other variations are possible.

15%

Just cracked open a 2018 G I Bourbon County Stout.

Looks a bit more interesting today to me. Nothing interesting on the 12z GFS. Surprised Ji wasn't in here yelling DISASTER. Other than the snow showers tomorrow, it doesn't have a single digital flake east of the mountains through day 15 lol.