CAPE

It would be an easy chase to get to good snow if the storm ends up sucking over here, but ofc midweek and work.

Warm, wet soil though!

lol it would be nice but rarely does a winter storm make everyone happy. Climo is pretty tough here for snow in December without real deal cold in place. Still time for some track adjustments. For us easterners it will probably be snow to rain and back to snow. Hoping to catch some of the deform band on the backside.

I am forced to hug the CMC, and I understand it's not much of a model.

Could be some sleet, but the signal for warming aloft is such that it would probably be more of a snow-rain deal. If we had a true Arctic air mass to work with, the lower levels and surface would be colder, and probably see more sleet/zr.

The low looks more compact and tucked in closer to the coast on the 6z GFS. With that, the E/SE winds cause the 850/925 mb temps to warm for a significant part of the storm for eastern areas. The exact track is really the thing to watch at this point. For my yard I would like to see it another 50 miles or so east as it approaches our latitude.

He said his return was going to bring it this year. I guess we fuccked it up lol.

There are worse places, but I will. Not going to happen in the next few days though.

For Monday seeing it snow even though it doesn't stick with a real storm coming Wednesday would be a huge win! I am looking forward to cold rain on top of mild rain!

Absurd snow map. Good luck with temps 35-36. Might see a slushy inch or 2 if it comes down hard enough. Nothing wrong with that though.

Its rolling now.

Makes me think of that mediocre AC/DC song.

He gone. We have likely lost our chance of a big snowstorm for another 4 years at least.

Yeah I think so. Not sure if it was cancer but he did say something to that effect.

You and me both, brother. Living where I do, always looking for a chase during winter when I can make it happen.

No worries. Keep plugging away. Lots of good schools. Find the right one for you.

I seriously LOL'ed at this.

I ignore his shit, so I don't care if he is here or not. But be prepared for thread derailment quite often.

Dude he has PMed many people here over the years to call them idiots/stupid, in addition to the insults in the threads.. Let's be honest. He is an ass.

DT's abrasiveness and lack of patience does not help at all. He could do a lot better with all of his knowledge. Not sure he has the disposition tho.

Me too. Is he still with us? I remember him not being well.

Hey y'all, it might snow! Maybe relax?

lol what a disaster this thread has become.

lol what a gradient over this way,

Latest from Mount Holly...in other words, stay tuned. Probably not much in the way of ice though. The current track from the model guidance keeps the low near the coast as it passes by. This would bring precipitation to the entire forecast area, possibly starting as early as Wednesday morning, and continuing through the day into Wednesday night. There are timing and placement differences between the available guidance with the GFS being a daytime evening, while the ECMWF and Canadian are a late day and evening-overnight event, so the details are still uncertain. But, as of now, it looks like this would be a rain/snow event, and not much in the way of sleet or freezing rain. As always, the track will determine the p-types. But it looks like much of the area could see some snow at some point during the event, with an accumulating snow possible for some areas. Specific details this far out are impossible to pin point. The main points are precipitation is looking more certain for the entire forecast area now, and that an accumulating snowfall is becoming more likely for portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Actual P-types will be dependent on the track of the low and thermal profiles.