It is highly variable. I miss out on as many southern sliders as I manage to catch the NW edge of. A synoptic set up like this often gets this area into the good stuff with the I-95 crew, but the air mass is not super cold, its mid December, and look at the warm ocean temps just offshore. There is going to be some strong easterly winds for a time with that low track. Dec 2009 was a 20" all snow event here, but it had a legit west-based block and a perfect track. Cold locked in.