CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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We need at least 3 days of solidly below freezing temps to get instant stickage. I think that is a rule. Or maybe it's a rule of thumb. We should ask weather53.
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Nothing like a 120 min IPA. Insanely malty, insanely hoppy, and a tad sweet. Some serious food value along with the high abv.
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Accumulation will be impossible here. I will have at least one and a half rain events before it snows properly. If it does at all.
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It cleared here mid morning. Gorgeous day. 59 degrees.
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Damn it's foggy in Philly.
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Had to change the channel for a few mins. Back on now.
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Army-Navy game starting. I just sat down with a DFH 120.
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The mean track is very similar to the op run. If you want to use snowfall clown maps as the reference, it was a slight tick down from 0z.
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My profile photo is a composite of the 500 mb heights for the 5 days leading up to this storm.
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It is highly variable. I miss out on as many southern sliders as I manage to catch the NW edge of. A synoptic set up like this often gets this area into the good stuff with the I-95 crew, but the air mass is not super cold, its mid December, and look at the warm ocean temps just offshore. There is going to be some strong easterly winds for a time with that low track. Dec 2009 was a 20" all snow event here, but it had a legit west-based block and a perfect track. Cold locked in.
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We are going to warm and rain with this setup. There is no way around it. Just a matter of duration, and the Euro gets us in on the heavy deformation snow this run. Went from next to nothing at 0z to probably several inches at 12z, and look at that surface temp gradient near us for a good chunk of the storm. Hopefully that ticks southeast some in future runs.
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Yeah I'm not super encouraged by those panels.
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Oddly, they aren't the most useful tool for determining what's actually being depicted at the surface.
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Holy crap with the snow maps lol. We should have a thread for that.
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Great happy ending. Low deepens just east of DE and boom. A lot of damn rain here first though.
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I hope you aren't looking at those wonky surface p-type maps to make that assessment lol. GFS has plenty of rain for our area.
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I'm not sure its the track as much as it is the strength/position of the confluence and the surface High to our NE. CMC has the High in a better position and a bit stronger, and even with the super tucked in track, 850s stay colder for eastern areas compared to the GFS.
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Yeah I noticed that. Has it further west this run but nearly the same result. Not really a deeper low at that point either. Odd, ofc it is the CMC lol.
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At this point not sure there is much that can change it. Yeah a flatter wave could do it- but probably not likely. A bit stronger confluence/suppression/stronger high up north is the best answer, or...the low bombing further south and a tad less tucked.
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That is already likely the case for SE of I95, if GFS and EURO are correct. Just looked at the GEFS, and its hours and hours of rain here with temps in the upper 30s verbatim. Need several ticks SE to give your area a buffer, and give me some decent snow. Went slightly the other way on the 12z GFS/GEFS.
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After last winter, 3-5 inches would be fine for a mid Dec storm. As long as it doesn't all come on the front end and wash away lol.
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I am literally right where it says 3.6, maybe a tad NE.
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That does happen, but not likely in this situation. Some minor shifts that might be favorable for eastern areas aren't going to have much if any impact on the NW crew.
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Yeah I would never expect all snow here in a setup like this. That happens with legit cold and a more offshore track. I am essentially tracking the duration of the warmth/rain during the height of the storm.
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I thought the latest GFS had that going on too. Low offshore in a perfect spot, then next panel it is NW and right on the MA coast. eta- I am referring to the coastal development/evolution
