CAPE

Nothing other than impatience. Random op runs always entice the usual suspects, and make them lose all perspective. Getting something sooner would be cool, but the favorable period has always looked to begin around mid month.

12z Euro is gonna be good. I can feel it.

rotted air mass

I agree. There was enough of a shift between the 0z and 6z Euro to make a small difference, and it doesn't show up as well but can be seen on the mean. Unless it ends up being weaker/lifting out quicker, we need that shortwave further west/southwest to partially phase sooner. That will tug the low further NW. That is what the good runs of the Para were doing btw.

What specifically?

Subtle but step in the right direction here with the NS piece trying to drop in/phase earlier imo. Compare it to 0z.

6z EPS is a tick further north.

I dont want to steal WB WIll's thunder. It looks the usual climo-ish meh. EPS is a little better, esp for central/western NC and VA. Pretty strong indication of the southern slider.

The 6z Euro does have that NS shortwave a bit further southwest at the end of the run fwiw. eta- for those who don't know, 6z only goes out to hour 90, which is 0z Friday.

Good thing Ji is asleep. No blue over us.

As of now this is looking like a true southern slider. Outside of extreme lower S MD over to Salisbury, those never work out for the rest of us. We need that low to at least turn the corner a bit and gain some latitude as it is exiting the coast. Whether that can occur or not largely depends on what happens with the energy rotating down in eastern Canada under the block. It doesn't appear like it will be able to get out in front/out of the way in time, but maybe it trends a bit further west and partially phases sooner.

EPS says don't give up yet quite yet. Still several days out.

Titans gave up 439 points this season. That's not good. Remember Campbell and Brandon Williams didn't play in the overtime loss this season. I think they will make a big difference against the run, because, that's what they do.

^Compare that to what we will have for later this week-

Yeah and we knew the airmass was going to be a struggle until at least the 10th. With the blocking a moderate wet snow bomb is possible, but that is still a low probability at this point. Anyway, signs of some legit cold getting very close by mid month, and h5 looks spectacular.

@Ji It doesn't make it north of Savanna.

Yeah that's been a problem. That vort dropping in from that far east is going to be tough. Blocking FTL.

Tragic indeed. I don't mind that last part so much.

HH is a DISASTER.

Yeah I am not hunting a KU over the next 10 days. No snow yet here this winter and barely an inch last winter- just want some snow.

We are gonna miss the late week deal to the south, and the next week storm will rain here, while NW of fall line folks get snow. Book it.

Congrats!

If fans believe their team is legit and can make a super bowl run, they don't fear any matchup. After that OT loss, and the horrible playoff game last year, I want the Titans. WDI too!