CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Yeah I'm not super encouraged by those panels.
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Oddly, they aren't the most useful tool for determining what's actually being depicted at the surface.
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Holy crap with the snow maps lol. We should have a thread for that.
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Great happy ending. Low deepens just east of DE and boom. A lot of damn rain here first though.
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I hope you aren't looking at those wonky surface p-type maps to make that assessment lol. GFS has plenty of rain for our area.
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I'm not sure its the track as much as it is the strength/position of the confluence and the surface High to our NE. CMC has the High in a better position and a bit stronger, and even with the super tucked in track, 850s stay colder for eastern areas compared to the GFS.
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Yeah I noticed that. Has it further west this run but nearly the same result. Not really a deeper low at that point either. Odd, ofc it is the CMC lol.
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At this point not sure there is much that can change it. Yeah a flatter wave could do it- but probably not likely. A bit stronger confluence/suppression/stronger high up north is the best answer, or...the low bombing further south and a tad less tucked.
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That is already likely the case for SE of I95, if GFS and EURO are correct. Just looked at the GEFS, and its hours and hours of rain here with temps in the upper 30s verbatim. Need several ticks SE to give your area a buffer, and give me some decent snow. Went slightly the other way on the 12z GFS/GEFS.
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After last winter, 3-5 inches would be fine for a mid Dec storm. As long as it doesn't all come on the front end and wash away lol.
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I am literally right where it says 3.6, maybe a tad NE.
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That does happen, but not likely in this situation. Some minor shifts that might be favorable for eastern areas aren't going to have much if any impact on the NW crew.
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Yeah I would never expect all snow here in a setup like this. That happens with legit cold and a more offshore track. I am essentially tracking the duration of the warmth/rain during the height of the storm.
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I thought the latest GFS had that going on too. Low offshore in a perfect spot, then next panel it is NW and right on the MA coast. eta- I am referring to the coastal development/evolution
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I was a kid living in Carroll county at the time. True Arctic air mass locked in leading up to that one. That may have been a Archambault event, as it turned much milder right after that as I recall.
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All I will be watching for future runs are 850/925 temps, and how far inland the 0c line gets. The 6z GFS was not good for our area. Need the low track a bit more offshore. I think any significant ridging out in front is problematic too wrt confluence and surface high strength/position.
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I generally agree, and that will probably be the case for the beginning of this event for sure. As the low tracks closer, the question becomes how much the upper levels warm. Not much of a risk out your way, but if the low is tucked in and the winds are screaming out of the east, the cold can erode fast. Pretty strong signal for this looking at the ensemble members. Hopefully things shift a bit over the next couple days,
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lol no. It's just become a running joke here over the years.
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It would be an easy chase to get to good snow if the storm ends up sucking over here, but ofc midweek and work.
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Warm, wet soil though!
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lol it would be nice but rarely does a winter storm make everyone happy. Climo is pretty tough here for snow in December without real deal cold in place. Still time for some track adjustments. For us easterners it will probably be snow to rain and back to snow. Hoping to catch some of the deform band on the backside.
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I am forced to hug the CMC, and I understand it's not much of a model.
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Could be some sleet, but the signal for warming aloft is such that it would probably be more of a snow-rain deal. If we had a true Arctic air mass to work with, the lower levels and surface would be colder, and probably see more sleet/zr.
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The low looks more compact and tucked in closer to the coast on the 6z GFS. With that, the E/SE winds cause the 850/925 mb temps to warm for a significant part of the storm for eastern areas. The exact track is really the thing to watch at this point. For my yard I would like to see it another 50 miles or so east as it approaches our latitude.
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He said his return was going to bring it this year. I guess we fuccked it up lol.
