CAPE

Looking out towards mid Dec on the 0z Sunday extended GEFS, the AK trough looks to weaken and retrograde enough that the EPO is probably at least neutral. Decent HL look in the AO/NAO domains as well.

Yeah that is going to limit the potential early Dec cold air intrusion. The h5 pattern as depicted is pretty decent, and has an interesting look wrt to storm possibilities, but it would be a lot more interesting to me if it was a month or so later. If I had a place out in Deep Creek or Canaan I would be way into the potential for this period though.

Pouring here this morning. Looks like it should move though pretty quickly. 0.27" so far.

Ten games in- not sure there is reason to expect anything different. They will play hard against the Steelers, and likely come up short. Other than the Colts game- where it looked like they had maybe turned a corner- they manage to beat themselves enough to not be able to beat a good team.

That play call to throw what amounts to a jump ball to an undersized receiver who has little experience was dumb and vintage Roman. Lamar should have not forced it, but again, imagine if the Ravens had a Hopkins or someone like that- then plays like that would yield something. But they don't, and they still do it, just because. As for the "regression" in his overall game- I think its a combination of things- the Ravens no longer have a dominant OL(mediocre at best), his targets are even more limited than last season, defenses defend them better, he is pressing and trying to stay in the pocket more(too long at times), and last but not least- a terrible and vanilla scheme that almost never creates space.

They simply don't have enough talent on the interior of the line, no matter how much shuffling they do. At best, they can run block decently, but then they are subpar at pass blocking. And regardless of who is in there, they continue to have drive killing penalties. That run Jackson made later in the game should have been a first down- but there was no camera angle to overturn it. So, 3rd and one- no big deal. Except for another untimely false start penalty made it 3rd and 6. This stuff has been happening all season.

This season is lost now more than likely. If the OL wasn't such a disaster, I think they could overcome the lack of a legit receiver and at least win a few of these games they always seem to lose. Getting Williams and Campbell back would help the suddenly soft run D, although Humphrey and Peters were completely overmatched today by- wait for it- the Titan's BIG, PHYSICAL RECEIVERS.

Jackson will finish out is rookie deal. What happens beyond that remains to be seen. Roman is terrible, and he can go anytime now.The OL has been a mess all season, and the D has gone soft with a few key players out- although they have been a penalty machine all season. Maybe the Ravens have finally figured out that they should have added some weapons for Jackson. They traded Hurst and Boyle is gone for the year, so its glaring now- but it was clear at the end of last season they needed a legit number one receiver who can make a contested catch. Literally every other team has at least one.

He is not Mahomes. Never will be. I would like to see what he could do if his receivers weren't all lilliputians who can only run a go route. Lol Hollywood Brown. They have one good TE and Snead. That's it. The Ravens went heavy on defense in the draft again, and have no clue how to find an impact receiver. Dez is it, I guess. Meanwhile the physical receivers for the Titans punished the Ravens defenders.

He can't block or tackle either. Or make a contested catch. I'm sure if they draft another QB everything will fall in place though.

That trailing piece of energy digging down towards TX would be pretty interesting as depicted, with heights building up north.

Ravens may have finally figured out what the rest of us seemed to already know about Dobbins.

Jim Brown is an obvious one, but I never saw him play...unless NFL films counts lol.

I would probably put Elway on that list, and maybe Cunningham. Most athletic QBs ever.

Yeah I have been watching the EPO region carefully. Latest runs are trying to get some ridging up that way, but that trough is very persistent in the WPO/EPO overlap region. There are signs it may weaken/retro a bit going forward. Something to keep an eye on.

Skura will ride the pine today after 2 straight games where he was a disaster snapping the ball. Mekari gets the start. Ravens also activated Dez Bryant for the game today.

As nice as these advertised h5 looks are for early Dec, there would likely only be a seasonal airmass to work with for any potential storm. Maybe we can get one of those anomalous dynamical systems that can generate its own cold air lol.

Big boy stouts.

My makeshift refrigerator lol. I didn't have too much, but threw everything out except the essentials(beer and wine mostly). Hopefully I will have a new one this week.

When is the official grand opening? Dec 1?

This look has been moving up in time. I made a post a couple days ago when the extended GEFS looked like this around mid Dec. I guess the problem is it might be transient and happen too early lol. Still not a lot of cold air initially available either way. To take advantage, this needs to verify, and have some persistence, in order to reload cold in our nearby source region..

No offense, but you are a pretty odd dude.

Agreed but we must always chase the unicorn, right? EPO domain is going to be important to our chances for legit cold air outbreaks, imo

12z GEFS looks pretty darn good at the end of the run today. GEPS isn't bad either. Probably average to slightly below average temps. Ofc it's just on paper at this point. We shall see. eta- Latest GEFS extended is a bit more ambiguous with the pattern around mid Dec compared to previous runs. Not bad but never gets the +heights into the NAO region. Given how the last couple GEFS runs have looked, it will be interesting to see the next extended run. For those who don't know, the extended(beyond hr 384) is a feature of the 0z runs, but the extended hours have a 24 hour delay, at least on TT. So the run I am referencing here is the 0z Friday edition.

Nor was mine. No need to 'go back and look'. I only brought it up as a possible reason why he isn't posting here anymore. I also hope he returns.