CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Down to 34 at 6pm. That ties the lowest temp here so far this fall.
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Random op run silliness? Sure! Notice how it only snows well south of here into central/southern VA, and then rains all the way to the UP of Michigan. lol. Thats realistic! Good ol GFS at D10+..
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High of 42 here. Currently 38.
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The NAO 'goes like +2' every winter. Not interesting. Now a -2 otoh..
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^Smoke and/or low solar will knock it back.
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Extended GEFS still "evolves" the pattern to where +heights are building in the NAO domain a few days later, but it wouldn't do much good with that AK trough sitting there pumping the PAC puke and cutting off the supply of cold air. Hopefully we see a bit of a reshuffle out west by mid-month.
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34 again this morning. First freeze tonight maybe. Forecast low of 26. I'll take the over.
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Weeeeee!!! Time to get the Dec discussion thread started?
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Yeah we have had leftover slushy slop on the ground, and snow a day or so later, but not any cases of a legit white xmas in my lifetime. I would defo take 13-14 over 15-16.The latter was a wretched torch winter with basically one week of legit winter and a big score. Epic tracking period but it was 60 degrees a few days later. I like to get out and enjoy it and it was sloppy muck before I could. Blah.
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Ya killin' me here. (No pun intended, reaper.) Given the rarity of December snow in these parts, and the romantic nature of it, I would have to go with (1). Tough one!
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So you are predicting a neutral-slightly negative NAO overall for the winter months?
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That is one impressively large area of "warm" 2m temp anomalies. Not sure I would pay much attention to that 4-6 weeks out. Advertised h5 height anomalies are probably marginally better at that range, but still plenty of uncertainty.
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Speaking of happy(hour), this is doing the trick right now.
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I would take the annual average snowfall at Davis, spread out over 4 winters, in a series of 4-6" events, and be damn happy.
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Ravens signed former Seahawk TE Luke Willson. Solid move. Especially considering they were down to one tight end with Boyle out for the season. I expect we will see the versatile Patrick Ricard lining up more at TE as well.
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Pretty decent fwiw. I tend to take a peak at the week beyond D15, just to see how things look. All low skill at that range ofc. Latest Euro weeklies are meh, at least from what I can glean from the really bad h5 graphics on the freebie site. Probably similar enough to the GEFS for the first week or so of Dec, but has at least some weak ridging in the east.
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I didn't notice it either when I bolded it and replied lol.
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Truth vs. truthiness. It can be quite the struggle for some. I can say I prefer the truthiness when it comes to snow in my yard.
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Wearing masks and socially distancing minimizes the risk. Until a vaccine is widely available, and even beyond, science says this is a simple, effective, and selfless measure we can all take to minimize spread. This is what we got, and all protocols should emanate from this.
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QBO phase influences the strength of the SPV. The impacts it has on the stratosphere do not necessarily couple down to the troposphere. The TPV and SPV are distinctly separate entities.
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Yup. Pretty standard stuff. Temp was 34 here at 430am, and by 6am it was 43.
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clean up on aisle 7?
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Here we go. This is our chance to thread a needle. (Please disregard surface temps)
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I would take a rerun of the last 2. 16-17 was meh, but pretty much median snowfall here, 17-18 was right at mean, which is about all anyone should ever hope for. Both had a chaseable big snowstorm/blizzard an hour away. eta- I shall clarify, since somehow @Eskimo Joe has gotten confused, Rerun of 16-17 and 17-18. Last time we had back to back Ninas. Winter of 18-19 was not a Nina. It was the Nino fail, aka puny Nino.
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Low of 34 here.
