CAPE

It's always difficult to predict how long it will persist. I like seeing the core of the +height anomalies shift further sw later in the ensemble runs, more towards the Davis Strait and Baffin. That's the sweet spot for the MA. Initially it looks to be focused over the Northern half of Greenland.

Just looking at the GFS, the trough amplifies and goes negative pretty early. That general idea would be problematic for the lowlands. Interior elevated areas could do well as long as it doesn't track too far inland. Still about a week out, so plenty to be resolved.

Shit ton of rain though. Immediately followed by cold and windy!!

Latest extended GEFS run looking towards early Jan. Lets add a -EPO to the -AO/NAO.

Horchata 10w-40 Imperial Stout from Hi-Wire for HH This is one of those stouts with a lot going on and it all works beautifully. Almond/amaretto aroma, dark bittersweet chocolate and spicy cinnamon on the palate, and smooth, almost creamy mouthfeel.

December 2009! 2020 redux, Nina style?

Wes had a great CWG article on the phases/states of the indices wrt to DC snowfall years ago, with some scatter plots to illustrate. -AO has the highest correlation to above avg snow in DC, and when that occurs we almost always have a -NAO too. That being said, there are other ways to get there as we saw with favorable EPO/WPO in back to back winters several years ago, with little to no help from the the AO/NAO. That setup has a high risk of cutters for anything amped though. Ofc we also want ENSO to be warm neutral to moderate Nino in general for big snow in these parts.

I agree we need significant HL help, particularly for the first half of winter with a moderate Nina. The ens means have been pretty persistent in advertising a -NAO in recent runs so thats a good sign- all caveats apply about verifying in real time. We are also seeing a western US ridge return on the means beyond day 10, and that would be be big in conjunction with a favorable NA in getting some cold aimed more towards the east. My posts about the EPO are wrt to the back half of winter. Assuming the Nina is going to continue to weaken some moving forward, we may see more of a tendency for ridging over AK at times later in winter. It would be great if the NA remains generally favorable throughout, and maybe it will, but recent history says otherwise. If a SWE does occur, who knows how that may shuffle things in the troposphere down the road, or if it will have any impact at all.

That should take its toll in the second half. Unless Roman does something dumb with the game plan again.

Defense is pretty awful outside of the one interception. No pressure. Got away with a flagrant PI.

Feels like I am watching an entertaining game between 2 really bad teams

Boykin??? lol wow

The false starts...****.

LOL This is how you lose to the cowboys.

Ravens are so perplexing. Tucker kicks the ball short,which is rare, and the ST coverage effs up. Way to give it right back.

Its all good. No worries. Player safety first!!

Was just thinking that. I am sure they are scrambling now with contact tracing.

Time for Hollywood to pull out of his funk. He had a nice play towards the end of the Steelers game, so maybe he has some mojo.

Yeah wtf. They better run for 200+.

I am generally of the belief that we ultimately need some decent PAC periods to have success this winter. I keep saying it, but I have more faith in a favorable EPO period than a blockbuster NA saving us from a persistently crappy Pacific.

Better looks, but same results so far. It's super early though. The next few weeks will be telling.

I have no idea what to expect from the Ravens tonight. They have some key players back, but minimal practice and some may show some post covid fatigue? Biggest concern is the lack of talent at TE now, and the continued reshuffling of the OL. Hopefully Dallas is as bad as advertised on the defensive side of the ball.

Well thought out post. Can't disagree with anything here.

Just where we want it, as they say...whoever they are.

EPS keeps the AO and NAO at least slightly negative through the end of the run.