CAPE

I'm good. I live on the central eastern shore at an elevation of 60 feet. We rain.

..to not a single flake lmao.

Eh its one GFS op run. There were also hints on the EPS though. I am in good shape because my expectations were already super low.

HH GFS is going to send the entire board into a drinking binge.

He called for a back loaded winter. And I don't think anyone doubts he is knowledgeable. That is not the issue.

A girl has no name?

Yeah, who really cares.

I have some egg nog spiked with rum, bourbon, and brandy. Can only drink this shit between Thanksgiving and New years. Its a rule.

CAPE knows 39

Just updated AFD from Mount Holly- The latest guidance has trended a little slower with the low, which could potentially lead to more snow as more precipitation could fall coincidentally with the cold air. The models are in good agreement with the location of the high moving across southeast Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will set up the cold air across the region. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, an area of low pressure is forecast to move up the southeast coast into the Mid Atlantic region, then continue to our east and out to sea Wednesday night into Thursday. The current track from the model guidance keeps the low near the coast as it passes by. This will bring precipitation to the entire forecast area, possibly starting as early as Wednesday morning, and continuing through the day into Wednesday night. With the current track, the forecast is for snow to start virtually everywhere Wednesday morning, before a mix and/or change to rain begins to lift northward into portions of southern/central Delaware and Maryland, as well as southern/eastern New Jersey; just south and east of the I-95 corridor. Along and north of the I-95 corridor, the forecast is for snow during the duration of the event. Eventually by Wednesday evening and overnight, cold air will move back in for all places, and everyone could change back over to snow where it changed to a mix or rain during the day. The precipitation types will be dependent on the track of the low and thermal profiles, so this could all change in the coming days. Although we do not have specific snowfall amounts forecast yet, all guidance is pointing to a significant snowfall accumulation for eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey, northern Delaware and northern Maryland.

Take a pic when its done. I was way into low and slow smoking but got out if it. Another one of those love of labor things lol. I'd smoke a shoulder over hickory for 6-8 hours then finish it off in the oven in a pan with some beer. It was done when I could pull the blade bone out with no resistance, and separate the meat with a dinner fork. No slicing.

Always beer-30 somewhere.

I am all about bang for the buck when it comes to drinking. Plus I want to keep my boyish figure lol. I'll drink a couple high gravity beers and call it a night, instead of drinking a six pack or more of 4% garbage.

He is way old school. Forecasting by surface pressure rules. I guess it can still work to an extent.

We need at least 3 days of solidly below freezing temps to get instant stickage. I think that is a rule. Or maybe it's a rule of thumb. We should ask weather53.

Nothing like a 120 min IPA. Insanely malty, insanely hoppy, and a tad sweet. Some serious food value along with the high abv.

Accumulation will be impossible here. I will have at least one and a half rain events before it snows properly. If it does at all.

It cleared here mid morning. Gorgeous day. 59 degrees.

Damn it's foggy in Philly.

Had to change the channel for a few mins. Back on now.

Army-Navy game starting. I just sat down with a DFH 120.

The mean track is very similar to the op run. If you want to use snowfall clown maps as the reference, it was a slight tick down from 0z.

My profile photo is a composite of the 500 mb heights for the 5 days leading up to this storm.

It is highly variable. I miss out on as many southern sliders as I manage to catch the NW edge of. A synoptic set up like this often gets this area into the good stuff with the I-95 crew, but the air mass is not super cold, its mid December, and look at the warm ocean temps just offshore. There is going to be some strong easterly winds for a time with that low track. Dec 2009 was a 20" all snow event here, but it had a legit west-based block and a perfect track. Cold locked in.

We are going to warm and rain with this setup. There is no way around it. Just a matter of duration, and the Euro gets us in on the heavy deformation snow this run. Went from next to nothing at 0z to probably several inches at 12z, and look at that surface temp gradient near us for a good chunk of the storm. Hopefully that ticks southeast some in future runs.