CAPE

Yes. If the block was more expansive towards the western Atlantic, that 50-50 low would be crawling, and we would probably have just enough suppression.

LOL just said that in my reply to nj2va.

The block is really just getting established, so that wouldn't apply in this case. The main issue to me is the degree of amplification/trough orientation, and how it interacts with the area of confluence to our NE. The ridging over Greenland as depicted is not very expansive either, and focused a tad north of where I would like to see it. Inland at elevation this is not as critical. eta- lol i thought you were referring to next week. my reply is in regards to the midweek storm.

Almost exactly the same position as 0z run, but a tad weaker.

Its not as good a run as 0z. Mean snowfall 2" along I-95 for the mid/late week storm. eta- could be a bit more with the back edge of precip near DC at hour 144.

Still super marginal with temps at 850 and surface, but trending in the right direction. Maybe a wet paste job.

Plenty of ground fog and heavy frost. Low of 29 but 31 this morning.

Yeah we could use a few more that have snow in my yard.

Not a big believer in the Monday event producing much frozen for the lowlands at this juncture. If the heavier precip gets further north, probably a better chance for the nw burbs..

6z GEFS early week deal.

Just looking over the 0z runs. Overall good stuff for the mid week potential. For I-95/east the CMC op has pretty much an ideal outcome for a mid December storm. Good track, doesn't amp too much/go negative, and the confluence is not displaced so the surface high ends up in a pretty ideal spot. Still a long way to go.

33 at 8PM

One of my go to places has a few bottles left from a year ago on sale. I have been bypassing it for other stouts, but tomorrow might be the day I pick it up.

Recent runs seem to be moving away from that idea. Stay tuned!

Still not overly enthused about Monday for our area, but it isn't dead. The mid week period holds more potential, but plenty of details to be resolved. In short, we simply cannot know.

Unless one simply likes hand wringing over details of a singular op run 5+ days out, love this panel and live for the next model cycle.

With the high pressure positioned nearly overhead, clear skies, and no air movement, temps will quickly drop below freezing, and over this way there is a freezing fog potential, esp over in DE and into NJ. Freezing Fog Advisory in effect for just NE of here.

Mount Holly mentions the potential in their AFD.. On Tuesday into Wednesday, an area of low pressure is forecast to move up the southeast coast into the Mid Atlantic region. The current track from the model guidance keeps the low right along the coast. This would bring precipitation to the entire forecast area starting Wednesday morning, and continuing into Wednesday night. As of now, it looks like this would be a rain/snow event. As always, the track will determine the p-types. But it looks like much of the area could see some snow at some point during the evening, with an accumulating snow possible for some areas. We`re still a week away, so we`ll have several changes before then, but definitely worth watching.

I like the more neutral trough axis this run vs 0z, when it was tilting negative as it approached. That likely wont work for places east of the highlands this time of year without super cold air in place.

I am fine with him. He likes to post the twitter weather geek stuff. Some of it is interesting.

The inherent shookness of the weather weenie.

This is actually a decent look. Better than the GEFS surface depiction at that time.

The confluence/convergence up there is something to keep an eye on in future runs. That 50-50 low is moving pretty quick on the latest GFS runs as the trough digs and heights build in front. Surface HP is on the move further NE as a result. It might help if the developing block was further along, or a bit more expansive, to hold that low in position longer.