The easterly phase of the QBO favors strat warming/weakening of the SPV, and currently it is in the westerly phase, and moving more positive. Unless the SPV couples down to the surface though(disaster), the focus really should be on the TPV, which is broader and more directly influences sensible weather. I still think our best bet for a period of cold air delivery into the east lies with blocking in the EPO domain, like the current CFS runs are suggesting for Jan. If it happens it probably won't last that long, but a 2-3 week period of a mini version of 2013-14 might be our best hope. I will expect a predominant +AO/NAO until I see otherwise in real time.