CAPE

Damn, the opinions of BAMWx got some people shook.

From Mount Holly AFD- Meanwhile, an old frontal boundary remains across Delmarva and extends back to the southwest towards Zeta. Rain becomes steadier and heavier going through the late morning hours as the boundary interacts with tropical moisture associated with Zeta. The heaviest of the rain will fall late this afternoon and into this evening as Zeta passes through Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Pressure gradient tightens up, with northeast winds overall increasing to around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, except for the coasts, where winds will range from 15-25 mph with 25-35 mph gusts. Gusts to 50 mph are possible right along the Delaware shores, so will hoist a Wind Advisory for late this afternoon into early this evening with the approach and immediate passage of Zeta for Delaware Beaches.

LR uncertainty. We know all about that. Ensembles have been advertising a cold period sometime around Halloween for quite awhile now. It is going to happen. Always issues with timing and details..

LOL Well, vitamin D3 comes from fish oil, egg yolks, etc. When skin is exposed to sunlight, it produces vitamin D3. So for those lacking(or avoiding) sun exposure, it is the one you want. Lack of D3 can cause depression in some.. i.e SAD. Most people in the mid and higher latitudes are deficient, unless you are a sun worshipper.

I guess that's my primary "gripe" too. Half of the trees have reached peak/dropped much of their leaves, the woods are very thinned out, but still plenty of green. I have every type of oak, plus hickory, maple, and other random stuff. No coordination!

DFH 120 for HH. Just because.. it was in the fridge.

Load up on D3 supplements, CBD oil, and drink moderately if possible. 2020 ain't so bad.

I'll go with DT's ideas for the upcoming winter.

Looking pretty lame for everywhere up there now. Your area will probably see more snow from the next piece of energy rotating down late Sunday into Monday. Looks pretty impressive at h5.

Forecast low here is now 30 for Friday night.

WPC has the area in a slight risk for excessive rain for day 2.

That oddity in the regular cycle in 2016-17 really stands out. Makes one wonder if that sort of thing will become more prevalent. I suppose it could have simply been related to the strong Nino during that period, or maybe a sign of things to come.

That tends to be the case with the "legit" blocking winters. Doesn't mean we can't get some HL help though. SPV is not likely going to be disturbed in the near term based on current forecasts. WAFz looks minimal over the next 10 days. Unless the SPV becomes becomes a persistent, giant blue ball of death over the coming weeks and couples to the troposphere, there is still the possibility of HL + h5 heights developing towards the end of November as the long range GEFS and EPS are suggesting. Time will tell, as always.

Its mostly yellows and oranges around here. Some red, but not much. Most of the maples are "swamp", so just more yellow. Its always pretty much the same- some trees peak early and are bare by the time others are at peak.To me, its decent, but I have never thought the color looked spectacular here, regardless of how wet/dry/cold/warm it is.

Great, just what I need here lol. I like the possibility of the first freezing temp Friday night, and Saturday looks awesome with sun and maybe 50. Wednesday Night Rain, mainly after 2am. Low around 56. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 66. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday Night Rain. Low around 47. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Friday Rain likely, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Sipping a Bells Winter Warmer Ale for HH- "Song of the Open Road". Pretty good stuff.

There is a generally accepted connection between the easterly(negative) phase of the QBO and disruption/weakening of the SPV, but any direct correlation between QBO phase and HL blocking episodes seems a bit more nebulous. It may be that winters with sustained blocking are more associated with easterly QBO due to increased likelihood of a weaker SPV, and this leads to development of a sustained -AO. By the same token, if the SPV remains more intact, but not an absolute beast (say in a somewhat weak westerly QBO), with no coupling to the troposphere/towards the surface, periodic HL blocking episodes may still occur.

I would take it because its pretty rare, and getting cold and and snow when the days are the shortest is cool.

I'm good with QBO 101. But thanks.

The transfer of heat from the equatorial regions to the high latitudes is necessary to build anomalous heights there/warm the upper atmosphere and potentially weaken/disrupt the SPV, so it makes sense there is a connection between the MJO and the AO. The QBO also has an impact as a modulator, and even though it is currently positive, it is only weakly so at this point. I don't know enough about the intricacies of the processes involved and the tendencies (eg location and magnitude of tropical forcing, ENSO state, QBO phase, etc). Above my pay grade. It's interesting, so keep us updated with the techno geek discussions on SW potential.

Continuing to monitor trends in the LR guidance for HL +height anomalies, because it may be the only thing that can save us, along with some semblance of a decent Pacific for a time. Below is the extended GEFS for a month out- towards the end of November, and below that is the Euro(weekies) for approximately the same time period off of the free site. Crappy graphics but I think you can see the look is very similar, and would be an acceptable one heading towards Dec.

You are obsessed with this once in a 40 year event lol.

There will be zero accumulating snow southeast of the hills of NW Mass. Climo.

How big is it? Make sure you aren't at your attachments limit. If so, delete some stuff.

WPC.. Not sure what models they favor- too lazy/disinterested to read their MDD.