CAPE
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Been tracking this for awhile on the extended GEFS and EPS weeklies for mid to late Nov. Good to see it showing up on recent op and ens runs now that they are in range. The look on the12z run today would probably suppress the storm track so far south we would miss all the cold rain.
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3 runs in a row it has impressive +height anomalies up top. It flipped on a dime though. There was nothing but blue up top prior to the 0z run.
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Mostly sunny and breezy now. Hopefully it dries things out a bit before more rain tomorrow. Temp up to 41.
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Ha. Nah I will find something to do. But yes, HH will be earlyish, just not THAT early.
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And those trying to establish new grass. Too much of a good thing. Last Fall I had to constantly run the sprinkler, because we couldn't buy a raindrop.
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After about 10 mins of sun, the clouds have rolled in. Come on man, I need a sunny day here lol. Wet leaves don't blow so good.
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Fall is the best time of the year for doing stuff outdoors. Not even close for me. If the winter ends up being extended Fall- mostly in the 50s/60s- then so be it.. as long as we can get out of this wretched wet pattern. If it's gonna be mild, bring on some abnormally dry.
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Sure. Except "having it now" doesn't make it less likely we will have it at the end of the month, or the month after. Could be a winter preview.
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36.5 just before sunrise. I am sure there is some frost out in the open areas. edit- Took a walk beyond the woods lol, and just a hint of frost here and there on the fields. Super wet with some water laying around from all the rain, so not conducive to frost with marginal temps.
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Speaking of saturated soil..more rain tomorrow for the usual places.
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In theory, without considering other factors, it would be "better". We really want the forcing to be a bit further west/further east though.
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Yeah frost/freeze fail lol. Maybe too many cloudy periods and/or saturated soil. Had my doubts about the forecast low of 30(which was later raised to 33). Temp has dropped here over the last hour or so. Down to 37.
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Beautiful Pacific Puke.
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Low cloud deck has finally moved out and skies have cleared. Cold and dry air/clear skies should promote good radiational cooling conditions. Forecasted low of 30 here still seems a tad aggressive. I will go with 32. 45 currently.
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Hell yeah I have had my heat on. Has to be at 71-72 or this place feels like a cold cave.
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Not much group think here. Might lean towards weenie think lol, but overall I think we have a pretty nice exchange of information and independent/objective contributions wrt possible outcomes for the upcoming winter. I read the CWG article that included your general thoughts, so please expand on those itt.
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Which is today. Drinking one now. Superb.
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Picked up another half inch+ overnight, and still raining. 2.83" so far. A 3" total looks likely.
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Yeah we had a 'snow drought' until the cold powder event at the end of the month ( a fav of mine) but it was hardly a torch lol.
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Knob Creek on the rocks for HH. Picked up some KBS Expresso Bourbon Barrel Aged Chocolate Coffee Stout for tomorrow and beyond.
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Still 65 here. Freeze warning for tomorrow night.
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2.25" here. Looks like the following low will produce another half inch or so. Would love for that to miss to the south.
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The only concern in my mind is if the SPV remains strong and begins to couple with the troposphere and eventually we end up with sustained lower heights down toward the surface. If that sort of thing happens in the Fall it can become a fixture for winter.
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Fwiw, GEFS/extended GEFS still depicting increasing h5 heights up top in about 2 weeks.
