CAPE

Low of 36 here. Currently 39 as the sun comes up.

This was mostly an "opportunity" presented by the detuned, low compression engines of the 70s into the 80s resulting from emissions/fuel regulations. GM always had plenty of powerful contenders in its lineup going back to the 60s, but nothing that could quite touch the highest performance option for the vette for any given year. (The 1966-67 427 Vette was a beast). Fast forward to the late 70s/early 80s and the small block vette had become an actual embarrassment to refer to as high performance. By the mid 1980s, technology began to overcome the emissions control/ performance limiting era, but the corvette had been essentially reined in to the pack and pedestrian for a decade.

Anyone who has ever owned a black car knows that "wax on-wax off" is an absolute disaster lol. Not sure it helps with karate either.

Both are high maintenance. I love the look of black, but yes it shows every possible imperfection in the paint/metal(or bondo lol), and stays clean for maybe a day if you drive it. Never was a fan of white. I just bought a 2017 Overland a few weeks ago, and everytime I searched, I filtered the exterior color to silver and gray. Both popular colors in the Jeep GC line, and along with white, very desirable colors for resale.

From Mount Holly AFD regarding convection/wind potential tomorrow- As the aforementioned shortwave trough passes quickly to our north into the afternoon, heights will be falling rapidly (as will surface pressure) and widespread rain showers are expected to develop. These convective showers could help mix down some of the stronger winds from the developing low level jet. However the main feature of interest from a convective standpoint is the potential for power showers, or a power squall, to develop along the cold front as it passes quickly across the region from west to east. The primary timing of this appears to be the 4 PM to 8 PM time frame. Dewpoints will be surging quickly to near 60 degrees ahead of the cold front allowing for a brief window of MLCAPE in the 200-300 J/kg range. Guidance is notorious for under forecasting dewpoints/low- level moisture profiles in these regimes, so I tend to think dewpoints and CAPE values will be at least slightly higher than guidance currently suggests. This combined with ample forcing aloft, boundary parallel effective shear of about 45 kts, and strong low- level kinematic fields will support a line or broken line of convection along or just ahead of the cold front. This line may be capable of mixing down wind gusts on the order of 50 kts, which may prompt the issuance of a few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. And yes, a few rumbles of thunder are possible as well. This setup remains quite marginal from a severe convective potential, but we will continue to evaluate.

Hard to argue. Not much to be optimistic about, other than dumb luck. We due!

Nice! I also had a gray srt8. I have bought 2 new cars ever, and leased one. Other than that, my usual strategy is buy a 2-3 yo vehicle, keep it 2-3 years, rinse and repeat. Best bang for the buck. I have owned a lot of vehicles lol. Only Jeeps for the last 20 years.

SSW talk is usually a hail mary. Bad sign if this is seriously being discussed at this juncture.

Yes, it's essentially the antithesis.

This looks like a classic winter storm pattern for the MA in late November!

Random GFS op runs with no support are sometimes fun.

Looks like mid to upper 50s for T-day per 12z GEFS. Acceptable. Hopefully it will be dry, along with black Friday. Maybe I can get some fresh mulch down after weeks of blowing leaves.

I have had 3 black Jeeps- a Cherokee, GC Limited, and a GC SRT8. Never again. You have to have a love of labor to own a black vehicle. Last 3 GCs have been silver or gray(including the Overland I have now). Won't own a vehicle that is any other color now.

After some leaf removal, driveway fixing, and Jeep washing, time for a break. Double Duckpin DIPA is tasting mighty good.

Over 61" here for the year. The lower part of my blue stone driveway is a mess. I am going to try and patch it up for now with some bags of paver base and gravel, even if it doesn't match lol.

Most of the trees dumped their leaves this week. Time to head outside and fire up the blower. Round 4. Should taper off from here.

40 was the low here.

A mild deluge is more like it.

Lowest temp here was 35. May have been a few places that got to 32-33, but not a hard freeze.

Extended GEFS looks similar for early Dec. It had this look for mid to late November then lost it. Keeps kicking the can on any decent HL look. We will see. At best it will probably be a period of transient ridging(bootleg -NAO) IMO. If something like this were to verify, it might give us some seasonably chilly weather for a stretch, but given the look in the EPAC/N of AK, the air mass would be more Pacific in origin.

Well this is probably how it will go. A few relatively brief cold periods with maybe some luck. Or not. We are streaky with the luck part.

He will show up if/when there is a trackable "threat". So yeah, we may not see him in the next few months.

Latest EURO weeklies (crappy freebie) panel for the day. Weekly mean h5 height anomalies, for Dec 7-14. FWIW.

Ended up with 2.9". Not much additional rain today thankfully.

That sorta matches the current CFS runs, which have kicked the can from previous runs depicting Dec into January being more favorable.