CAPE

Looking beyond our mild/warm and boring stretch of weather, mid next week looks to become active with possible tropical connection.

36 here this morning with some scattered frost.

It is a well known predictor of HL blocking.

I am late too. Didn't get home until 4. I just know that today the HH rules were changed to "whenever you want". Surely someone here must be 3 sheets to the wind by now.

Drinking the last of the KBS Expresso Bourbon Barrel Aged Chocolate Coffee stouts. Woo, what a mouth full. It is a legit HG beast too at 12%. Need to get more of this one.

Everybody drunk? If not, get busy.

Yes it will be. I stated this a few times itt, and just my opinion- our best hope for occasional cold air intrusions probably lies with the orientation/ placement of the EPAC ridge. Hopefully ridging can establish towards the EPO domain for a time. Maybe we see a few transient -NAO episodes, but given the run of +AO/NAO winters we are on, and other factors that aren't necessarily favorable, it's difficult to be optimistic about the development of persistent HL blocking this winter.

The TPV is much more influential on sensible weather. We can go an entire winter with little to no connection between the SPV and the TPV. I think sometimes it is forgotten that these 2 features are entirely separate entities. Probably not likely to see a sustained -AO if the SPV is unperturbed, but it certainly does not preclude blocking episodes and cold air outbreaks. We had plenty of "visits" from pieces of the TPV during the winter of 2013-14, and it had everything to do with the sustained -EPO/WPO, and little to nothing to do with the state of the SPV.

One more chilly day then we enter what looks like a long stretch of upper 60s- low 70s. A tad warm but at least it looks dry.

Temps rose after midnight here. WAA FTL. 43.

Monday edition of Euro Weeklies is out. Freebie h5 panel for Nov 30- Dec 7:

40 here after a high of 47. Wind and some branches down but no loss of power here today.

An inch or 2. Nice. You will see what it means to actually "get smoked" later though.

Latest GEFS runs are not as enthused with building heights up top around/beyond mid month. We have seen this perpetual kick the can routine many times when it comes to advertising HL +height anomalies in the LR.

I mow/mulch until early December, when all the leaves are finally down.

Does that include sacrificing December?

It just seems endless.

Yeah he made a 'frustration' tweet after the game, then deleted it. Seemed directed at Roman. Ofc Roman isn't exactly known for being a guru of the passing game. His passing offenses in SF ranked 23, 29, 29, and 30.

Lamar played badly today. Maybe his worst game overall. He looks uncomfortable and indecisive a lot now, But the issues are not simply him. The interior OL is terrible at pass blocking, although as we saw today, they can run block. Roman's "scheme" rarely spreads the field and provides space and easy throws. Hollywood is getting frustrated, but defenses key on him and Andrews, and don't worry much about anyone else. Snead broke out and had a nice game today, but he is not that big physical presence that can make contested catches and key first downs. Defenses have adjusted, and if the Ravens don't, then this is what we are going to see against the better teams. They need to figure out a way to get the passing game back to at least being efficient, as it was last year, and even the first few games this season. They really should go pick off a big time receiver from one of the many teams going nowhere, or get Hayden Hurst back at least. Dez Bryant probably isn't the answer.

265 on the ground. Ingram lost his starting job IMO. Dobbins is GOOD.

They are 5-2 lol.

It is officially over watered now. It will scorch, as always, starting late June.

They ran the heck out of the ball down 2 starters on the OL, against arguably the best Defensive front in the league. They still need a big time receiver or another TE and Lamar has to be better at seeing the field and not forcing balls. His ball security today was uncharacteristically bad. The team as a whole has way too many dumb penalties esp in the last 2 games. They have work to do to be able to beat teams like KC and Pitt. Unfortunately Stanley is out for the season. Bad break. I expect DeCosta to be busy the next 48 hours.

Sunny here now. 54 degrees. Changeable day lol.

0.78" I think it has ended.