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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    12z GEFS looks cold and more suggestive of snow than ice for our region late next week.
  2. CAPE
    Warm soil. Wet soil. Sun angle. Too many cars. What a disaster.
  3. CAPE
    Snow simply cant stick a day later if that happens.
  4. CAPE
    Keep talkin' dirty. I like it.
  5. CAPE
    I will go with 10:1 initially, then ending up at 6:1 late Sunday morning/early afternoon. Probably ends as light rain here as advertised.
  6. CAPE
    36 and light rain now.
  7. CAPE
    39 and rain.
  8. CAPE
    If those areas are prime, my yard should be. I usually do better than those areas in marginal temp events because I am further E/NE and away from any moderating influences from the bay. What do you figure the liquid/snow ratios will be? Even if there is good lift through the DGZ, the lower level temps are super marginal, so I would think maybe 7:1?
  9. CAPE
    Given temps, and esp if the best lift ends up along/east of I-95, I hope folks aren't taking any of these snow maps literally. Looking like a 2-4" deal to me, which would be just fine.
  10. CAPE
    See how it works when we have legit cold air available?
  11. CAPE
    Plenty of spread on the EPS for late next week, both location and timing, but this captures the potential pretty well. Decent moisture available with Arctic air pressing in.
  12. CAPE
    Ground "truth" is not much different than 12z.
  13. CAPE
    That is correct. It is not really an issue of the track so much on the Euro.
  14. CAPE
    I expect it will be more in line with the rest of guidance at 0z. One way or the other lol.
  15. CAPE
    In our region, east of the higher terrain, you jackpotted.
  16. CAPE
    Banter.
  17. CAPE
    Shortwave is not as sharp and dampens as it comes east. Weak pos this run.
  18. CAPE
    18z Euro looking maybe a tad more suppressed than 12z.
  19. CAPE
    Just juicing up a bit pretty much gets the whole region into the good precip shield. Maybe just wishful thinking, but I cant see this amplifying too much more given the flow and the configuration at h5. Maybe a slight tick NW, which is about all I can afford here lol.
  20. CAPE
    Left rear quad looks favorably placed. Hope this pretty much holds as is.
  21. CAPE
    Air flow converges into the base of a trough, then diverges, or accelerates out of it (just east of the vorticity max at h5) and you can also see this by looking aloft at the jet streak.
  22. CAPE
    Next panel
  23. CAPE
  24. CAPE
  25. CAPE
    I would tend to agree, but there is still a fast flow and it would seem amplification will be somewhat limited, this is going to be in and out in less than 12 hours, and it appears it will occur late late Sat night into early Sunday, so that sort of evens things out a bit.
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