CAPE

If you are totally bored, or you actually eat them, do some research on chicken Mcnuggets.

Yup. It astonishes me how a large part of this country eats. They eat crap no human was ever meant to eat, even once, and they do it daily. And walking 10 feet is a workout. Lack of information, and conditioning. I avoid fast food and refined sugar like a plague.

Just saw this thread on the character of the Nina from HM.

Looks like the Saints found out one of their players tested positive, after landing in Detroit last night for their game with the Lions. Contact tracing and further tests this morning. Could be another postponement.

43 here this morning.

Sprinkler for lease,

We are moving forward though, with some scientifically proven preventative measures in place to save lives. This is America. We make sacrifices, and take actions for the greater good, even if it is uncomfortable sometimes. That's patriotism. No solution is perfect. Congress needs to get this new stimulus bill done though. As MN Transplant said in his post above, we are biding our time. Progress has been/is being made with testing and development of an effective vaccine. This wont be forever.

I am in the middle of teaching a class now. Wearing a mask while lecturing is a bit interesting- it tends to fall down off the nose when you talk, so I am constantly adjusting. It clearly minimizes the chances of transmission though, and it is a minor inconvenience at most. I just don't get the whole "liberate" political crap. We all wear seatbelts, and we didn't used to have to do that either. Wearing a mask minimizes the spread of all sorts of viruses. After getting Norovirus in back to back winters, I started paying more attention to hygiene when out in public places and keeping distance from random people, even before all this. Assuming we get a vaccine and this passes, I may very well continue wearing a mask in certain situations, esp during the winter months. A major aspect of "fixing" the healthcare issues we have in this country is preventative.

I am gonna beat Mersky to the punch, and give you a weenie here. Make that multiple weenies.

How is this relevant? Give me some hard numbers, not anecdotal crap. And not some puny data set, either.

The current situation speaks for itself. The politicizing of mask wearing is completely absurd, pathetic, sad, and dangerous. It's baseless. And it is absolutely not "both sides" on this one. COVID doesn't give a fuuck who you are, or what your ideology is.

October is not a winter month. Wrong thread.

You might as well stop monitoring this. It is clear where it is heading as we move into winter. There is nothing particularly good that can result from this, esp in a Nina.

Looks pretty close to bone dry for the next 10+ days. I am highly in favor of this possible outcome. I understand why others in our region may not be, however.

64 degrees here at 2pm. Absolutely perfect early October day,

Yeah I am not sure there was much else they could do realistically, other than taking the measures they already have with keeping players separated/staggered as much as possible when getting treatments, working out, etc, and ofc wearing masks indoors and when in close proximity to others. I mean, who could possibly object to wearing a mask given what we have known for months about the transmission modes and rate? Oh, wait..

"It can't be worse..." We due!

Cam Newton tests positive for COVID. I predicted this wouldn't go well for the NFL and it now looks like it may be starting to unravel. As I said before, I hope I'm wrong.

That is simply a function of a smoothed mean. The primary takeaway on that panel is the location of the average positive and negative h5 height anomalies for the month. You cant just ignore the colors and focus on the height lines. The +(-)heights generally correlate with the temp anomalies at the surface. I wont bother posting that panel- you can imagine what that looks like lol. Clearly these models are not very good at this range, so hopefully that area of +heights in the PAC ends up parking further NE, shifting the phase of the longwave pattern some. That would suppress the SER and give us a better chance for cold air delivery here.

That is a pretty terrible look for a LR h5 height anomaly mean. But sure, its a smoothed mean, so there would obviously be some perturbations in the overall pattern. Big picture is crap though. The CFS, CanSIPS. JMA, etc, might all have the wrong idea at this juncture, but it fits recent winters, and is characteristic of Ninas in general. It really is all about the placement/strength/orientation of the Pacific ridge. If we luck into a legit HL block, even if the EPAC ridge parks in an unfavorable location as currently advertised, the impact could be mitigated somewhat.

That' is typical. It will eventually hone in on the most likely solution though. It has pretty much been the only climate model pushing a half decent Pacific and favorable HL look.

CFS seems to be off the crack and now looks pretty much identical to the CanSIPS for early winter now.

Its not decadal. Unless you mean we see a -NAO an average of once a decade lol. That's probably about right over recent decades. There may be some cyclical nature to it, but with a longer period. The NAO has been predominantly positive since the early 1980s. The 40-50 year period preceding that, there were more negative phase years than positive. IIRC, the frequency of ++NAO years has increased since the early 1990s. Somewhere in this thread I posted a long term time series of the NAO phase (or maybe it was the AO) for the winter months. I cant find it atm. There is a significant correlation between the AO and NAO though. A legit -NAO (not transient bootleg crap) typically occurs when the AO is negative.

We should be beyond the point of having to use disclaimers on this stuff,, but the climate models are what they are, and ofc we are looking at projected mean patterns. No, we should not expect wall to wall winter(probably ever), but otoh, there will likely be a few weeks within climo winter with some cold and chances for winter weather, even in an overall crappy pattern.

The October (full edition) of the CanSIPS is now out. Looking at the monthly h5 height anomalies, it is pretty much a dumpster fire for DJF. The EPAC ridge is a one eyed pig throughout, but gets worse for Jan and esp Feb. Eastern ridge, and no help up top. Temp anomalies for DJF-