CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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FD Kujo coffee porter is good, but missing a little something(no hops). Reeser's Peanut Butter Chocolate Milk stout is just too much of everything. Mixed em 50-50- it's freaking great!
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Drinking a DFH Punkin Ale while working around the house, with college football on in the background. Aaah Fall.
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^This is all good. Expect median, or less, and be content. Much more realistic than thinking you are going to see average or above most winters.
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Odds are this winter will be better in the snowfall dept. Would be difficult not to be. It could still be completely awful by most folk's standards though. If your yard received 6" of slop spread over 3-4 events, with 5 total days of snow on the ground, in an overall torchy winter, would that really be more satisfying than last winter?
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This doesn't make much sense honestly. Plenty of variability in Nina winters, year to year and month to month.
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Drinking a DFH Fruit-full Fort for Friday HH.
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It appears the heaviest rain over the next 4-5 days will fall along and NW of I-95. Looks like 2"+. per WPC. GFS likes NE MD for the heaviest stuff. Even though it has been dry the last week, these damn mosquitoes are hanging in there, and they are bastards. Let my yard get the least rain for a change. Need some legit cold nights too.
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I don't want more than that. I know some of the NW folks would like a flood though.
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I was just going to post this lol. It does look good for the northern burbs and further NE for heavier rain. GFS not so much. Just a general inch or so across the region.
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42 here this morning.
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Having the AO in the negative phase is key for above avg snowfall in DC, and we typically see a -NAO when the AO is negative. It can happen other ways, but it mostly occurs when there is HL blocking.
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EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 8 October 2020
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A legit wintertime -AO/NAO would help our cause immensely. It has been awhile.
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Yeah I had to buy a six pack of this. I took a chance. Its decent. It may last a while in my fridge lol, unlike most stuff i buy.
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Not a flake within 200 miles of the far western highlands for that period on the 12z GFS. Shocked?
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Latest trends are for a a wet period from late Sunday through mid week. Just how wet remains to be seen. At his point it doesn't look like anything excessive.
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Drinking a Reeser's Peanut Butter Chocolate Milk Stout from Eastern Shore Brewing. It's interesting.
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The Jets are atrocious. Flacco is risking his health, and for what? Its actually sad. He had a nice career, and he will go down as a decent NFL QB who got hot and played like Joe Montana at the exact right time- and earned him the massive contract. He should retire now.
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What great leader said that?
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Flacco had a decent run. His career is over. Lamar is 23, and was MVP in his first full season. Yeah he needs be able to carry his team when it counts, but remember a guy named Payton Manning? How did he do in his first few shots at getting it done for his team with it all on the line? I wonder why it is that you doubt Lamar.
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None of these seasonal/climate models are very good more than a month out. Even the Euro is pretty bad. That said, as a group they are worth monitoring to get some idea of the big picture pattern. Nice thing about the CFS is it constantly updates, and it has weeklies out to 6 weeks. Makes it more entertaining. It has been on one of its "good look" runs the past few days. What it is currently advertising for winter would be completely acceptable for this area.
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True, but it does happen. Remember the NC snowstorm a few years ago while we were smokin' cirrus?
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They both "mean something". You have to keep in mind it is a super LR mean- a monthly mean at that. I pay more attention to the height anomalies on these panels, as it is indicative of where the features of interest may set up in general. Outside of a super blocked up pattern though, clearly there will be some shifts in the location and intensity of the + and -height anomalies.
