CAPE

The current situation speaks for itself. The politicizing of mask wearing is completely absurd, pathetic, sad, and dangerous. It's baseless. And it is absolutely not "both sides" on this one. COVID doesn't give a fuuck who you are, or what your ideology is.

October is not a winter month. Wrong thread.

You might as well stop monitoring this. It is clear where it is heading as we move into winter. There is nothing particularly good that can result from this, esp in a Nina.

Looks pretty close to bone dry for the next 10+ days. I am highly in favor of this possible outcome. I understand why others in our region may not be, however.

64 degrees here at 2pm. Absolutely perfect early October day,

Yeah I am not sure there was much else they could do realistically, other than taking the measures they already have with keeping players separated/staggered as much as possible when getting treatments, working out, etc, and ofc wearing masks indoors and when in close proximity to others. I mean, who could possibly object to wearing a mask given what we have known for months about the transmission modes and rate? Oh, wait..

"It can't be worse..." We due!

Cam Newton tests positive for COVID. I predicted this wouldn't go well for the NFL and it now looks like it may be starting to unravel. As I said before, I hope I'm wrong.

That is simply a function of a smoothed mean. The primary takeaway on that panel is the location of the average positive and negative h5 height anomalies for the month. You cant just ignore the colors and focus on the height lines. The +(-)heights generally correlate with the temp anomalies at the surface. I wont bother posting that panel- you can imagine what that looks like lol. Clearly these models are not very good at this range, so hopefully that area of +heights in the PAC ends up parking further NE, shifting the phase of the longwave pattern some. That would suppress the SER and give us a better chance for cold air delivery here.

That is a pretty terrible look for a LR h5 height anomaly mean. But sure, its a smoothed mean, so there would obviously be some perturbations in the overall pattern. Big picture is crap though. The CFS, CanSIPS. JMA, etc, might all have the wrong idea at this juncture, but it fits recent winters, and is characteristic of Ninas in general. It really is all about the placement/strength/orientation of the Pacific ridge. If we luck into a legit HL block, even if the EPAC ridge parks in an unfavorable location as currently advertised, the impact could be mitigated somewhat.

That' is typical. It will eventually hone in on the most likely solution though. It has pretty much been the only climate model pushing a half decent Pacific and favorable HL look.

CFS seems to be off the crack and now looks pretty much identical to the CanSIPS for early winter now.

Its not decadal. Unless you mean we see a -NAO an average of once a decade lol. That's probably about right over recent decades. There may be some cyclical nature to it, but with a longer period. The NAO has been predominantly positive since the early 1980s. The 40-50 year period preceding that, there were more negative phase years than positive. IIRC, the frequency of ++NAO years has increased since the early 1990s. Somewhere in this thread I posted a long term time series of the NAO phase (or maybe it was the AO) for the winter months. I cant find it atm. There is a significant correlation between the AO and NAO though. A legit -NAO (not transient bootleg crap) typically occurs when the AO is negative.

We should be beyond the point of having to use disclaimers on this stuff,, but the climate models are what they are, and ofc we are looking at projected mean patterns. No, we should not expect wall to wall winter(probably ever), but otoh, there will likely be a few weeks within climo winter with some cold and chances for winter weather, even in an overall crappy pattern.

The October (full edition) of the CanSIPS is now out. Looking at the monthly h5 height anomalies, it is pretty much a dumpster fire for DJF. The EPAC ridge is a one eyed pig throughout, but gets worse for Jan and esp Feb. Eastern ridge, and no help up top. Temp anomalies for DJF-

This will surely work out well come January.

28.3" here since July 1. 51" for the year so far. Give me a couple months of below normal precip, before juicing up again for Dec. Don't wanna miss out on the cold rain.

1.10" total here. Glad it 'underperformed'. 10.25" for Sept

This is what I use. Its a bit pricey when you have a larger area to do(like I just did) but it is very effective and I despise straw, so worth it.

CFS continues to be pretty gung ho on HL blocking for winter, with the Pac looking decent for December. Even when it gets pretty ugly by Feb, a -NAO saves us from an all out torch. Fwiw ofc.

Curious to see what the new 500 mb anomalies look like. Probably be available in 2-3 days.

0.45" here already today ahead of the main show. Hopefully it underperforms here for once.

Yeah and with Roman's "game plan", there was not much chance they were going to get a lead. Defense was terrible too- no pass rush without blitzing, and breakdowns all over the place in the secondary. This stuff was supposed to have been corrected in the offseason.

Ravens were severely outcoached and outclassed. I am starting to really dislike Roman as OC. That "game plan" was pathetic, and looked a lot like the Titans game. Score easily could have been 42-13. Washington's talented DL will have a field day next week against the Raven's mediocre OL.

Still looking like 1-2" here through Wed. Hopefully no more than that. Sitting at 9.15" for September currently.