CAPE
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As we move into October, the climate models may offer somewhat more reliable hints as to where the EPAC ridge will set up, and whether or not there will be any HL blocking for the first part of winter. We are probably still a month away from extracting anything useful from these models.
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It looks like southern MD and the lower eastern shore may get a decent amount of rain from the combo of the front and Sally remnants. Probably a pretty sharp gradient heading further north and west. I wouldn't mind a quarter inch or so here, which looks possible. Still reseeding/overseeing, so a bit of a break for the sprinkler.
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This is something I mentioned in discussion with psu earlier in the thread. With the oceans all on fire, how much impact can a relatively small sliver of slightly cooler/warmer SSTs in the Pacific really have on the atmosphere at this point, and going forward? It would seem outside of a strong ENSO event, the influence should be muted relative to other pattern drivers.
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I have lost enthusiasm a bit for the fall seasonal brews in general lately, but I will probably pick up a six pack of FD The Fear. Always liked that one. Schlafly Pumpkin Ale is another good one. Much rather do singles on the pumpkin ales, but not easy to find. I seem to get "fatigued" after drinking one or 2 of any one of them.
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There is an actual cloud deck today, so the smoke impact is muted.
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Oh it will show plenty of snow for all our yards. The magnitude will be inversely related to the period of interest, i.e. game time.
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NAM
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Yesss The first part of my post was a song reference, for those of you into folk- alt rock.
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Not trippin' on hallucinogenics. Sippin' on a 120. Drink a few and there might not be much difference.
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Low of 48 here
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59 here. Forecast low here is 52. That may bust high, as there is no wind and the high altitude smoke particulate should not inhibit radiational cooling much if at all. We shall see.
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Yeah I will go out on a limb here and guarantee my yard will see more than an inch, which was the total last winter(rounding up).
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Gross. Head to Florida.
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Damn, this is good.
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Firestone Walker 2020 Parabola Barrel Aged Imperial Stout Bought it today with the intent of saving it for the weekend. However, in celebration of the awesome weather, its not gonna make it. Might be a weak excuse, but it didn't take much.
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63 here. Fabulous. Damn mosquitoes need to die though. eta- DP is 46
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It is in about the same spot above the horizon, different direction though.
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The sun looks the same as it did when I took the photo around sunset last evening. Pretty eerie.
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Latest CFS runs continue to depict h5 +height anomalies over the high latitudes for late Fall into the first part of winter.
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There is a bit of a trend over the last couple model cycles to bring the remnants of Sally further north. Might see some showers later this week for eastern areas ahead of the next cold front. And ofc the 6z 12km NAM now pummels the eastern third of the region lol.
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51 here this morning.
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Cool HP building southward from NY state will make today feel very fall like. Too bad we will still have particulate matter in the upper levels from the smoke. We will again see milky/hazy skies instead of what would be brilliant blue.
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That map is ambiguous, and quite frankly, useless.
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He has more weapons this year too, so no need to run as much. Andrews is still a beast, plus Hollywood is healthy, and as if we needed more talent at RB, I love Dobbins. Dare I say he reminds me of Emmitt Smith..
