CAPE

Satellite went out. Hearing thunder for the first time today with this cell. Tropical deluge.

I am doubling my citra, and doubling my fun. Oliver!

1.3" Looking at the radar, doesn't look like I am going to be able to wish away more heavy rain. New grass is not exactly thriving. Already 6.6" for the month.

Pouring here but its pretty scattered for now. 1.15" Much of that fell this morning as a moderate rain. Hoping to miss the really heavy stuff.

The chance for excessive rain today was forecast yesterday for the area. Models struggle with pinpointing the exact locations where the heavy rain will occur given subtle forcing mechanisms and weak flow aloft. There is no bust here.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0736&yr=2020

It just left. Miss it already?

Storm motions are likely going to be slow with very weak flow aloft. PW is 2"+.The flash flood risk is legit.

I hope this trend of wetter for eastern areas continues into winter. Looking forward to lots of cold rain.

The stuff this morning is round one. Round two comes later with the cold front moving through. Places NW of I-95 should get in on that action.

29 - 9 19 - 0 NFL starts tonight. Those are baseball scores from yesterday.

0.33" since yesterday afternoon. Hoping the heaviest rain misses here today. I have a new section of grass seedlings popping up. They wont appreciate being pounded by torrential rain.

I love the clean, boxy look of the mid 60s cars in general. The 66-67 Chevy II (Nova) was the best of that style imo. The L79 package in a car that weighed about 2600 lbs made for a really fun ride. These are a favorite today for restomodding. Most people put an actual frame under it, as the early unibody design was not good with all that power and torque.

This is pretty close to what mine looked like. Same year. Hardtop, and almost the exact same color. Same stance. Mine had Fenton brushed aluminum slotted wheels.

Solid downpour here atm.

Yeah baby..

Dude the mid 60s Rambler was a car you you do something with. Light weight and decent clean square lines. I was a huge fan of the mid 60s Chevy II. My first car was a 1964 2 door sport coupe.I hot rodded that up. I always wanted a 66 or 67 L79 option with the 327/350 hp vette engine. That is a clean looking machine and was a a legit sleeper. Very sought after today.

Even the all time ugliest cars can be made cool.

Already 5.5" for the month here. An inch or so would be fine. Not 3 or 4.

Beyond tonight...

Picked up one brief downpour so far today. 0.16"

Looks like Denver got a little snow. http://www.keno.org/colorado_web_cams/denver_cams.htm

Speaking of the front, it looks to become stationary just to our south. We may be entering into a pretty wet period. Mount Holly's take- Big changes come on Sunday. The stationary front south of the region lifts north as a warm front. Meanwhile, H5 trough passes through the Great Lakes and passes through the Ohio Valley before lifting north into the Northeast and eastern Canada. Surface low pressure develops around the Mason-Dixon line and lifts to the northeast Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain are possible, as surface dew points climb back into the 70s. After the surface low departs, the cold front passes through Sunday night, and once again becomes nearly stationary over the Mid- Atlantic.

Yeah the air mass is going to really juice up with the SE flow between the Atlantic ridge and that trough off the SE coast- PW nearing 2". There is some mid/upper level support, including a strong jet, but its not clear where any area(s) of low level convergence may set up, and thus where the heaviest rain will be. Seems like S MD and up along the lower bay has the highest probability for our region today, but the mesos generally keep much of the activity down in eastern VA and offshore. That seems to make sense given the location of the trough. Tomorrow looks like the better day across guidance for more widespread heavy rain in our area with the front moving into the juicy air mass in place.

Marginal risk of excessive rain for the area over the next couple days.