CAPE

It's a 120 Friday HH.

Yeah, well proceed with caution lol. We have seen plenty of advertised good looks up top in the LR in recent winters and outside of something transient/bootleg, it never materializes. But given we are just about to October, and we are seeing some 'decent' signs, there is time for a bit of optimism before all hopes and dreams get crushed. And ofc there is the WDI. Oh and solar min. And smoke/ash!

And the latest CFS runs look like this for November. Matches his composite for November preceding those winters pretty well. Who knows if it has a clue- but it has been pretty persistent in hinting at HL +heights for Fall lately.

That was always the danger that winter with the big EPO ridge but no help on the Atlantic side. Anything that amped up was going to track west/inland. That one tracked right on the coast so it brought in a ton of warm air aloft for eastern areas.

Went over to pure rain here after about 5" of snow. It was definitely not a good storm for most of the coastal plain.

That's what I said- Transposed.. switched...inverted.. wrong phase.

CFS Weeklies concur. The trough in the east for the first week of Oct may be transient. GEFS wants to hang onto at least a weak trough into the second week though.

You just may have to wait for your November paste bomb to dent that dry spell.

Once we get into winter with Nina atmospheric response, all those pretty colors will be transposed.

I get that. Just playing devil's advocate a bit. We always want HL blocking, regardless of ENSO state. It greatly increases the odds of significant snow events for this area. A favorable EPO is probably second after a -AO/NAO, as we get big cold air delivery and even without much help in the NA, we can snow.

If you live in the MA outside of the microclimate areas in the western highlands, lower the bar for "good" winter when we are in a Nina. Median snowfall should be the "goal". After last winter, a 10" total for DC/BWI would seem epic. Ofc there is always luck.

The h5 look leading up to the coastal blizzard of Jan 2018, aka bomb cyclone. Driven by a very favorable Pacific during that period. Defo a +NAO.

Gotta be careful with that "we" thing! Again, the 2 most recent Ninas both produced big snow events in early Jan(of '17 and '18) for eastern areas, with a pretty crappy look up top. Just saying, it can happen. In general, yes, we need a decent HL look(AO/NAO) for significant snow down here in a Nina, but the same can be said in most cases even in a Nino, and especially for the lowlands.

Too warm. Bring back Fall.

Dude, we agree on the blocking lol. No worries. Where we differ, I think, is on expectations. Most of us here know that the bar is always lower going into a Nina. So like I said, a "good" winter, during a Nina, is mean snowfall, give or take. If the requirement for a 'good" winter is above average snow, well that is not likely in these parts without some blocking, and esp in a Nina winter. People would be better off hoping for median snowfall in general. More realistic these days.

Remember, there really is no "we", especially during winter.

Yep. My yard and esp places further east did ok with the Boxing day storm, but despite the blocking, many in this sub forum don't have fond memories...

Yes it was and we had our best region wide snowfall in March. Eastern areas cashed in during the cold snap the first part of January, while the DC area was cold and dry. That period was driven by a favorable Pac, with not much help in the N Atlantic, which goes back to what I was saying in my initial post on the subject- we can get some good snow here when we have a favorable EPO/PNA, absent a -NAO, although it clearly doesn't happen very often in a Nina.

Where did I say a -NAO wasn't important? The MA generally doesn't do well in a Nina, period(outside of the western highlands).That has mostly to do with the lack of a subtropical jet and NS dominance, Miller Bs etc. A "good" Nina winter is getting somewhere near average snowfall. There are a few Nina winters where extreme blocking allowed for above normal snow. The last time we had a Nina, 2017-18. many areas here were right at average(not DC, sadly), and right along the coast did better than average. That was a predominantly +NAO winter. There was a MA beach blizzard in early Jan(da bomb cyclone!) although the NAO may have been technically neutral as that storm approached.. Certainly no blocking. So it can happen.

We can snow here with a favorable Pacific(PNA/EPO) and a +NAO. Its not always easy and there is a higher risk of bigger storms tracking inland, but we did pretty well in the winter of 13-14. Gotta have the cold available and that pattern delivered consistently. Ofc that winter was not a Nina. A -NAO definitely improves the odds of a favorable storm track down here though. It is pretty much a requirement for a big snow producer, especially for the coastal plain.

Maybe Cohen will be right for the wrong reason again.

Based on recent/current observations, it appears to be headed in that direction. 40/70 Benchmark made a post on his preliminary thoughts for winter a page or so back and discussed it in detail.

Maybe an early season snow chase at Canaan.

Looks warm for awhile. Probably 5+ degrees above average in general over the next 5-6 days, before we get what looks like an impressive trough digging down from Canada mid next week with a big PNA ridge out west.