CAPE

Yeah some spits and drizzle here. .02" Looks like a pretty gross week coming up. Very warm and muggy.

Red Sox finally found a team they can beat.

Did you come up with that? If so, I am impressed lol. I like it. So it is official- the male counterpart to a Karen, is a Chad.

^According to Reddit, its either Chad. Kyle, or Keith.

lol Its one of those trendy terms/memes. Look it up on urban dictionary. I better be careful, because its probably considered sexist, although there should be the equivalent for men too.

472 cases and 3 deaths in Caroline. Living in an area with an extremely low population density has its advantages. Everyone here seems to comply with mask wearing, minus a few exceptions. Always a Karen or 2 around.

Happy Friday HH! Drinking a 'Straight outta the Southern Hemisphere' triple IPA.

The pitching is less than mediocre, and they aren't talented enough offensively to overcome that against better teams. If they play sloppy like they have at times during this losing streak, they wont beat the crappier teams either. Hopefully they can get it going back the other way and at least remain watchable.

Sorta like my bigfoot(Daryl) analogy with a -NAO.

Likely depends on the strength of the Nina. A moderate to strong Nina and +QBO likely eliminates any chance of HL blocking. A cold neutral/weak Nina AND a severely negative QBO may allow for either some HL blocking episodes or some favorable EPO periods, providing a mechanism for cold outbreaks in the east. PSU is saying his research finds no correlation, during a Nina winter, specifically between QBO and snowfall for the MA.

That would be perfect timing as long as it doesn't end up a slow moving front with rain. Having a family meetup near Luray that weekend. That would be awesome weather for some mountain hikes.

Yeah I was going to post a panel showing that, but TT just died.

TT is beyond slow now- its inaccessible.

Looking pretty toasty and humid for much of next week. Good bet we see a couple 90 degree days with pretty high dews.

DFH Oak Aged Vanilla WWS for HH. Freaking delicious.

Not surprising. As I have said, the QBO correlations seem nebulous, but in theory it impacts the strength of PV, and thus potentially the AO/NAO phases, so I would expect to see better correlation(-QBO) during a Nino, when HL blocking episodes are more prevalent (and we tend to get more snow).

CFS is on one of its better "runs" lately, Big picture h5 for Dec and Jan look pretty decent, and is a 'believable' look for a typical weak Nina. Feb doesn't look bad either, but with the massive +height anomalies it has in the EPAC, there would probably be more of a ridge in the east, although it also suggests a -NAO lol.

This area rarely sees big snow totals from a Nina, but can do ok with smaller events and scraps, and sometimes make it to average. That is a hell of a lot better than the crap we dealt with last winter. Ofc you have to completely tune out the fact that places further north are getting hammered from miller Bs while our region mostly gets jipped. We are who we are here, and we sure as fuuck aren't NNE.

Looking at CoCoRaHS map, Saint Michaels is at 14.72" for the month.

The Winery. Great selection of craft beers plus they have some locals on tap if you want a growler.

This is pretty much how it went in 2017-18. The early Jan period was memorable for folks in the eastern MA, esp right along the coast with the blizzard. The snow also stayed around for a week or so with the cold, before moderating a bit.

I also managed to find DFH 120 IPA and the Oak aged WWS. Wishing Well In Easton is the shit. They have a huge selection, and no other place around has the WWS or the 120s right now. Just a tad on the pricey side.

Drinking a #Black Is Beautiful Imperial Stout. Its a collaborative effort. Check it out. The one I am enjoying is from Cushwa Brewing Company. It is excellent. Has some characteristics of an oatmeal stout- creamy, lacy head. This one is 10% abv.

0.28" this morning. 9.32" for the month. 75 here currently.

Something to keep in mind with the general gloom and doom/early predictions for a warm winter- wrt the "new" normal/base state of the Pacific, in conjunction with a Nina, it doesn't necessarily translate to a crap winter. The last Nina we had was just 3 years ago, and it did produce a very respectable cold period, the bomb cyclone, and for some of us, normal snowfall. My yard was literally right at or maybe a tad above average. Point being these changes in the Pacific certainly existed to some extent then, and this stuff waxes and wanes each season even if the general trend is headed in an 'unfavorable' direction going forward. Nina winters can be an exercise in frustration wrt snowfall for the MA, but an anomalous cold period. even in an overall warmish winter, does happen- we just need to time it up and get lucky.