CAPE

The lowering sun angle is becoming more noticeable now. The mid day full sun area is shrinking, and more of the yard is shaded/filtered by trees longer.

Yeah I have been outside working too. Lost most of the clouds and the sun is beating down now. Time for a break. (maybe a beer)

80/71 here Not bad out as long as you aren't moving too much.

The process of reseeding/overseeding has begun. Soil is nice and workable after all the rain this week It dries quick here, so going to take advantage and get the first section done.

I am sure there will be plenty of west based -NAO at day 27.

It was tongue in cheek, thus the use of quotations. Generally not worth much, other than maybe providing an idea of the 'big picture' pattern going forward. That said, extending the range of the ensemble system, and making changes(spending money) to improve performance inside of 10 days are not mutually exclusive. This GEFS (v12) upgrade provides higher resolution, and increases the number of ensemble members to 31. There are other technical changes in the model physics. eta- the rationale for extending the forecast range and some of the 'in the weeds' changes to the model. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2020EGUGA..22.6379F/abstract

The flood watch was put in effect because of the already saturated ground in many places. There was never going to be a widespread event over the last 2 days, and some areas did indeed receive excessive rain in a very short period. It does look mostly dry for the next few days at least. Mid to late next week could feature some storm chances.

Only a little over a quarter inch here. Just about 7" for the week.

Rapidly dying.

Yeah don't do that. It will likely be difficult enough to get decent snow where you are in the years to come. I will be looking to move west to higher elevations, or north. Going to need elevation and/or latitude for consistent snowfall.

It's basically the "useful" portion of the weeklies built into the ensemble run lol,

I am overdue for a miss, so expecting nothing tonight. I got a precursor to the predecessor, the predecessor itself, was in the max qpf zone for the storm itself, had a brief deluge later that night, then the MCS with the incredible lightning show yesterday morning, with the worst flooding all week. A total of 6.7" since Monday night. Reseeding begins tomorrow.

I picked up a 4 pack of barrel aged Narwhal stout today too. Super good stuff.

Yup its 18%. And lol you need to do the "in moderation" thing. This is probably all I will drink tonight. Bang for the buck. One beer, but like drinking three 6% 'ers.

Thats where the best forcing is- along the weak front that lies across that area. Should sink SE, and some other cells may pop up out ahead of it this evening. Not sure how widespread it will be. Looks more scattered to isolated.

Happy Friday HH. I'm going big, boozy, fruity. DFH Fruitfull Fort. This stuff is so good and complex. Has elements of both the WWS, and the 120, as strange as that might seem.

Just noticed TT has the GEFS Para (v12 upgrade) available. It is higher resolution and has more members(31?) The 0z run goes out to 840 hours lol.

I guess we can hang our hats on solar min to possibly contribute to HL blocking in order to tilt the expected generally unfavorable pattern a bit more in our favor. IMO that correlation, along with the QBO, to negative AO/NAO episodes seems very nebulous. If I was making predictions I would not give either of those factors much weight, esp in what looks to be a Nina winter. Not sure what else we got though lol.

Excessive Rainfall discussion for the MA from WPC- Activity on Thursday was widespread and quasi-organized on larger scales. On Friday we may see lesser coverage and/or lesser longevity of individual storm clusters, as the upper trough continues to fill, experiencing height rises at its base over the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic today. Sufficient heating of the still tropical airmass, however, is likely to lead to scattered initiation along sea breezes, over the mountains, and near a quasi-stationary front and inverted surface trough sitting over DE/MD/PA. Hi-res model consensus places the greatest concentration of rainfall over Maryland and southern PA to southern NJ, thus near and north of the surface front where both mid level and jet level forcing should contribute to somewhat greater lift compared to areas farther south. Models generally agree, and especially the various HRRR runs, that a flash flood threat could develop early in the morning as the tail end of a jet entrance region interacts with the CAPE gradient north of the front in Pennsylvania. Coverage of storms will then increase elsewhere by midday, with HREF odds of inch per hour rates peaking after 22Z in MD/DC/VA. The environment and model signal certainly support local rain rates nearing 2 inches per hour. Much of this region is quite saturated, to say the least, in the wake recent widespread heavy rain events. Once again, a lack of sustained forcing and the expectation of lesser coverage today is what keeps this event in the Slight Risk category, but wherever multi-inch rainfall occurs in urban areas or other sensitive basins, an isolated significant flash flood is possible.

More data on temperature tendencies during a La Nina winter. Certainly some variability, but you can see from these panels that a mean ridge in the east is pretty common. The problem with the years that are on the colder side, is they also tend to be dry for the SE and MA region due to dominant northern jets (Polar/Pacific).

From Mt Holly AFD this morning- It looks like two primary rounds of convection remaining. The first opportunity is for the remainder of the overnight through mid morning today. This comes thanks to another convectively enhanced vorticity impulse riding up along the stalled frontal boundary. Radar overnight has been very unimpressive so far, as it was yesterday afternoon and evening. Strongly suspect that the unexpectedly vigorous MCS on Thursday morning really did a number on the atmosphere, and that we still have not recovered. Mesoanalysis indicates at least some modest amounts of elevated instability in place early this morning, and plentiful low level moisture with PWATs from 1.5 to 1.9 inches, highest to the south. Shear is weak, and storm motions are very slow from the southwest. So heavy rain remains the greatest concern through the morning. Quite a bit of uncertainty in how widespread this round of convection will be given concerns about the instability; so far it is struggling to get underway, but will wait awhile longer before cutting PoPs for the coming hours. Where storms do develop, flash flooding remains a possibility given the slow storm motions, possibility of training storms, and saturated ground. The second opportunity for convection comes this afternoon and evening, into the early overnight. This time, the trigger will be a combination of the approaching trough from the west as well as a little more energy streaming up from the southwest. The bolded part is interesting, That was intense(and unexpected) here, and it expanded/strengthened as it moved towards coastal NJ.

1927

The Orioles are who we thought they were.

^ that was the year I moved down here from Carroll county. I was like- damn people said it doesn't snow much here? Really??? eta- that Superbowl Sunday storm is easily top 10 in my lifetime. Terrible game though.

Yeah you are right. It was 1988 that was Nina. Jan-Feb 1987 was sweet.