CAPE

Just standing water in this photo. Further up the road there was a swollen creek running across the road. This particular shot is a place where the drainage ditches are inadequate and don't drain into a major ditch or creek. Gotta pick your spots on the mid/upper eastern shore as the soil is so variable. Probably some heavy clay in this guy's yard that drains very slowly. My place is high and dry and has extremely well drained soil.

With all the headlines concerned with wind damage/tornadoes, the flooding threat seems to have been overlooked. I may have missed it but didn't see any FFW up last night, even as multiple rounds of storms with heavy rain were training over this area. I saw several scenes like this within 3 miles of my house driving into work this morning.

Nope, not for a while. One last storm rolled through after midnight with another half inch. 3.9" event total, and 5.35" since Wed night.

I think it stopped finally. 3.4" and 4.85" since yesterday.

Not sure what round it is but it can stop anytime now lol..I think it finally has. 3.4" 2 day total of 4.85" eta- had another storm after midnight, so the 'severe' event total is 3.9", and 5.35" since Wed night.

Didn't really want/need more heavy rain after last night, but pouring here again. I think my new grass is gonna croak from fungus. Just over an inch for today so far, and a total of 2.48" since last evening.

I know this is not DC- but I am basically on the same latitude and at low elevation- and I can think of 3 warning level events right off the top of my head in the last 2 Nina winters. The one in March I think did have some blocking, but the other 2 didn't. They were both coastal scrapers with 10" plus at the beaches, about 6 here, and little to nothing for DC. Just dumb luck I suppose. eta- being further East/NE does help in a Nina with catching the edge of a Miller B sometimes. Happened here in Dec 2010 (the storm never to be mentioned). Got 5" or so from that, and there was 10+ a few miles to my east, but that period did feature a -NAO IIRC.

Some bombs going off here now. This is more impressive than round one for sure. Last night was still better.

This one is a banger. Sounds/feels like bombs dropping out there.

Hearing more thunder to the west. Lets see what round 2 can do.

lol be careful!

Yeah it is a different animal. You could hate a typical IPA and love the 120 lol.

Looks like a wrap for here. Lots of rumbles and a couple of booms, and 0.30" of rain. After last night's big storm, this is perfectly fine with me. 1.75" since last evening, and no wind impacts.

Sounds exactly like what I had last night. Way more fun than today.

Barely on the edge of this one. Some impressive lightning and booms of thunder though. Looks like Easton may get it pretty good.

Blocking would be lovely, but as we all know, its pretty rare during winter lately. We could see something transient ofc, but if this winter is to feature a colder period, I am inclined to think it will probably require a favorable EPAC for a time, something like Jan of 2018. No one in DC area should expect more than a low end warning event or 2 at best, and hopefully a few 1-2" deals. That would be a major win after the debacle of last winter.

QBO won't make much difference. Its impacts are nebulous imo, and even more so in Nina. The AO/NAO is pretty much guaranteed to be positive for the winter months based on persistence and general correlation to Nina. Not to say we wont have a few periods where it is less positive or neutral. Maybe the solar minimum will save the day(winter).

The thinking is more linear as it moves eastward towards the coast, and reading the discussion from Mount Holly they think the most likely place for a tornado is in Cecil over into Newcastle in DE up into SE PA. Possibly some interaction with the warm front lying across that area, backing the flow some is my guess. Bigger overall threat will be damaging straight line winds, with fairly strong winds aloft and decent Dcape. Bowing segments generally produce straight line winds but can also produce tornadoes as vorticity sometimes develops on the north/south end of the line. How far north are you?

Yeah a CanSIPS Dec followed by a CFS Jan and Feb would be pretty decent. A month from now we can reanalyze.This is fun.

Yup. At some point I am just gonna say eff it and let grow what wants to grow. A combo of clover, dandelions, moss, and crabgrass seems like a nice variety of green ground cover. And some pretty little flowers too!

Latest discussion from SPC-

I hope the heavy rain manages to avoid my yard today. Got plenty last night, and some of the grass I planted a few weeks ago looks a bit meh. With the lowering sun angle there isn't as much sun through the trees to really dry things out.

The latest CFS runs now have a torch for December lol, but then a pretty good look for January- similar to above but better- deeper trough and hints of a bit of HL help. Looks pretty similar to h5 back in Jan of 2018 when we had the cold period(and the bomb cyclone). February doesn't look terrible either. All just for fun ofc at this juncture with these climate models.

6z 3km NAM suggestive of super cells transitioning to QLCS. Has what appears to be a bowing segment with a cyclonic head developing and moving towards the lower eastern shore.

If @JakkelWx gets a super cell over his yard I'll go chase it though.